UNC Basketball: Assessing the enigma that is Nassir Little’s NBA Draft stock

Keeping It Heel’s Verdict Part 2

Defensively, Little often gets lost off-ball, making late rotations and showing bad technique when closing out on opposing shooters. At times he’ll get caught in no man’s land, nowhere near his man or out of position.

There are even instances when running in transition that Little has to be shoved back toward the man he’s supposed to be defending. When defending ball-handlers, Little showcases lateral quickness that is concerning, placing a real damper on the “elite defender” narrative that he entered college with.

He wasn’t laterally elite in high school, but he was quicker than he is now, which could point to other factors affecting his performance defensively.

Some members of the media speculate that Little, in an attempt to gain strength to split time between the 3 and 4, added more muscle mass to his frame than he should have, which would understandably have adverse effects on his mobility on the court.

Extra muscle and weight could be one of the culprits contributing to his inability to create separation off-the-dribble as a shooter and slasher (granted, he wasn’t a shifty ball-handler to begin with), and contributing to his slower lateral movements when defending opposing ball-handlers.

This speculation, I must say, seems pretty reasonable, if not completely agreeable. When comparing how Little looked—both in terms of physical appearance and on-court movement—as a high school senior to now, the differences are jarring.

This isn’t to say that Nassir Little is out of shape — really, this is a matter of what weight he’s most comfortable playing at in order for him to maximize his abilities. If he does foresee himself as the explosive wing that he was as a high schooler, then it may be best to cut some weight, perhaps 10 pounds or so. As a high school senior he still possessed plenty of strength, enough so that he could play three positions (2, 3, 4), but his athleticism and mobility weren’t hindered like they are now.

If he were to remain at this current weight, then he needs to improve his conditioning while also finding other ways to be effective, since his performance as a 4 has been relatively poor thus far. It’s hard to see how dropping a few pounds would hurt his game, but nonetheless, that is a decision for Little and his camp to make whenever the time comes this offseason.

A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie released a multi-part project featuring scouting reports from various, anonymous assistant coaches throughout the NCAA, giving their opinions and insights into various draft prospects (and draft hopefuls) that they’ve had to coach/scheme against.

For Nassir Little, Vecenie felt the need to create a separate article altogether, using the input from 10 coaches — more than most of the pieces which offered a handful on average. The reviews of the Florida native were mixed to say the least, volatile to put it mildly, and harsh to put it bluntly. Although some coaches still view him as a raw prospect with lottery-level potential and desirable physical/mental traits, others view him as a player who, quite simply, has no clue what he’s doing out on the court.

For what it’s worth, I think the right way to view Little is somewhere in between. It’s too harsh to call Little a horrible prospect, but the concerns expressed by these pessimistic coaches are still valid — for whatever reason, Little doesn’t seem to understand exactly what he’s doing on the floor, neither on the offensive or defensive end, which is quite puzzling. He shows flashes, of course.

It’s not all bad.

Against Duke he showcased great situational awareness on a few possessions, especially on one occasion where he caught a pass and took a step back behind the arc to drain a three, taking a better shot than merely spotting up for a long two. But flashes aren’t enough, especially when he has so many possessions where he drives through traffic, running through players hoping to make something happen (e.g., when he attempted to facilitate a grab-and-go and threw the ball away).

Prior to the season, though, Little was touted as one of the best wings entering the NCAA and even argued as one of the challengers for the top draft selection, as laid out by The Stepien’s Cole Zwicker. Zwicker, in a very in-depth profile that broke down several elements of Little’s game, pointed toward the potential for the 6-foot-6 wing to operate as a pull-up/post scoring threat while also playing switchable defense and having explosive/powerful athleticism. And, if we are to look at Little’s AAU/prep/all-star tape, this analysis is pretty spot-on. Little was good—really good.

Which, when looking at the whole picture, is what makes the case of Nassir Little so confusing.

What are we supposed to trust more and weigh more in our analysis of him? Recent collegiate play or his positive track record in high school? Balancing pessimism and optimism is a tricky thing: If you were to look only at his film with UNC, he looks bad (and that’s putting it nicely).

If you were to look only at his film from AAU/prep/all-star, he looks damn good. So, what should we weigh more?

Finding the intersection of both is preferable and necessary, as pointed out by ESPN’s Mike Schmitz. While preseason analysis slated Little as a surefire top-5 pick, solely looking at this season would render him a second-round selection; taking into account both tenures places him somewhere in between, somewhere in the lottery range where most mocks have him placed as of today.

Bottom line, giving up on Nassir Little the basketball player is probably unwise, due to who Nassir Little the person is. Little consistently carries himself with a smart, hopeful, aware, and confident demeanor, as does his family and coaches who support him.

Little has proven himself to be an incredibly hard worker, a positive attribute that doesn’t seem to be waning despite sub-optimal conditions at UNC (regarding his playing time, performance, etc). He himself was a late bloomer, not becoming a five-star prospect until later in his high school career and not being seen as a potential star freshman until the all-star circuit. Being a late-bloomer is not a negative; it’s totally fine.

Some players are more project than product, and that’s just something NBA front offices must consider on draft night. Just because he hasn’t played like a star as an 18/19-year-old freshman doesn’t mean that he’s doomed.

Perhaps the best possible landing spot for Little is a franchise that boasts a patient front office and a strong culture, one that can give him the time and resources to develop and find out what type of NBA player he needs to be in the long run. There is risk involved with selecting him, but that can be said for practically every single prospect, since the draft really is a crapshoot, with no certainties when it comes to who will pan out and who won’t (other than Zion Williamson, if we’re being honest).

If a team like Atlanta or Brooklyn, teams with budding cultures and multiple first-round picks, were to select Little in June’s draft, I would argue that those two teams would be great landing spots. Considering how similar Little and Jaylen Brown’s collegiate seasons are (unspectacular performances despite five-star status) and how comparable they are as players (size/length, archetype, personality, etc.), that leaves Boston as a potential suitor that could mold him into a Brown-esque player, too, while also giving him some space and time to grow on the bench (and in the G-League) with a franchise that is currently building a contending culture.

Nonetheless, teams will have plenty of questions during the draft process, as Little is certainly one of the more enigmatic prospects from this year’s crop of amateur talent. If it were up to us, we’d conservatively place him somewhere in the 10-20 range, where he would hopefully land with a team that will have the patience and resources necessary to tap into the skills and flashes he’s shown both as a high schooler and collegiate player.

It’s certainly possible that he could slip further if teams are skittish (which wouldn’t come as a surprise), but it’s also just as likely that a team in the top-10 takes a leap of faith and believes in the flashes he’s shown.

He’ll likely be more of a second-contract player instead of an immediate contributor, but whatever team picks him in June will likely already understand that.

Wherever he ends up, Tar Heel fans will proudly root for him every step of the way.

For more coverage of all things UNC Basketball, stick with Keeping It Heel. For Part Three next week, we’ll be taking a look at Coby White.