UNC Basketball: Assessing the enigma that is Nassir Little’s NBA Draft stock

Keeping It Heel’s Verdict

Breaking down Nassir Little’s draft stock — when factoring in his AAU/prep/all-star play, collegiate season thus far, and other factors such as his attitude, familial background, and his physical measurements and whatnot — is like trying to fit a square peg in a circular hole, or like trying to teach an old dog new tricks, or like trying to get Roy Williams to stop saying ‘dadgum’ and other Roy-isms.

In other words, it’s practically impossible.

Outside of Duke’s Cameron Reddish, Little is arguably the nation’s most confounding top-tier draft prospect due to the preseason hype they preceded his relatively underwhelming freshman season at UNC.

While his motor and raw physicality drew comparisons to the likes of Stanley Johnson, Jaylen Brown and even Kawhi Leonard, his play leaves a lot to be desired. Once showing an ability to create his own shot off the dribble, score in the post through fadeaways and drop-steps over smaller/weaker forwards, and put the clamps on opposing players, Little is now relegated to simple clean-up duty in the Carolina offense, primarily scoring his buckets around the basket in the form of cuts, lobs, and offensive rebounds/putbacks.

For what it’s worth, he has been efficient around the basket, proving himself to be an ambidextrous finisher, and he still shows an ability to score in the post, but his game lacks a level of dominance that many people expected of him.

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"Nassir Little: Defense (per Synergy)"

Despite not being billed as much of a playmaker while in high school, since he was typically the fulcrum of the offense and was the primary scoring option with little-to-no playmaking duties, he’s been even worse in that regard with UNC, committing significantly more turnovers (41) than assists (23), often hurting the offense unless he has Carolina’s senior trio around him to help keep the ball moving (which, to be fair, is necessary for most Tar Heels, due to how well the team plays with Cam Johnson + others on the floor).

His handle is high and loose, too, which hinders his ability to make plays for others and make plays for himself. Often, attempts at making plays off-the-dribble result in turnovers, ill-timed passes, or poor shots (which points to a general lack of feel on the offensive end).

As far as shooting goes, there is still some hope that Little is a better shooter—or can be, that is—than what he’s shown thus far. Despite shooting just 26.5 percent from three-point range on 49 attempts, his respectable free throw numbers indicate that his mechanics aren’t damning by any stretch.

Pre-college shooting, too, helps his case, since it was his improved shooting during his senior campaign that contributed so much to his meteoritic rise up the 2018 class rankings. Little does a good job of squaring his feet to the basket, keeping his guide hand on the side of the ball without “thumbing it,” getting enough lift on his hop, and keeping his elbow compact. He could work some on his wrist movement and elbow alignment, though, as he tends to flex pretty hard on his shots while also pulling his shot far back (at an acute angle).

Again, there are signs that point to Little being a capable shooter at the next level, even if “capable” only means average; “average” is a huge step up from where he is right now.