UNC Basketball: Assessing the enigma that is Nassir Little’s NBA Draft stock

In part two of our three-part series looking at UNC’s top NBA Draft prospects, we analyse the pro prospects of freshman combo-forward Nassir Little. How does he fare among the media’s many mock drafts and draft boards?

After being named the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament on Sunday, it’s fair to assume that UNC and its fans are laser-focused on the impending postseason run that will begin Friday night against 16-seed Iona. Some, though, are looking ahead to what will happen once the run is completed and no more basketball is left to be played.

This brings us to part two of our draft stock series. Last week we covered fifth-year sharpshooter Cam Johnson, whose emergence as a high-major star and elite perimeter threat has him shooting upward on draft boards throughout the country.

This week we’ll be looking at enigmatic freshman forward Nassir Little, whose season has been one full of nothing but sporadic ups and downs. Highly-touted as a physical 6-foot-6 combo-forward and 5-star prospect, Little was seen as a Carolina’s next star, one who would leave an immediate impact on the court by using his physical athleticism to overpower opponents on offense and defense. Despite strong games here and there, “dominance” is far from what UNC has received from him thus far, much to the chagrin of hopeful fans.

The Florida native has yet to sniff the starting lineup through 33 games, playing 18.3 minutes per game off the UNC bench. Despite his lack of playing time and limited role on offense, he’s been productive with his minutes, posting averages of 9.4 points and 4.6 rebounds on 46.3 percent shooting from the field, 26.5 percent shooting from three-point range and 76.8 percent shooting from the free throw line.

He has games where he makes highlight-worthy plays on offense by throwing down powerful slams, and on defense by creating turnovers thanks to his length and quickness. His numbers are fine, as are the flashes of greatness. They’re not enough, though, to warrant a star title, nor a spot in the starting lineup, which is what concerns scouts and media members so much.

The preseason hype that came with Little’s commitment to UNC placed a heavy load on his shoulders, with expectations of stardom and dominance. Since he hasn’t delivered on those expectations, his NBA stock is in flux, with no two scouts, coaches, executives, media members or fans having the same evaluation of what Little could be as an NBA player.

The marriage between player and coach is an imperfect one. Nassir Little’s modern combo-forward skill set clashes with Roy Williams‘ traditionalist rigidity in what he expects his players to do on the floor. While the modernization of the game sees players of Little’s ilk capable of playing up and down the lineup (i.e., 2, 3, 4) without on-court responsibilities changing that much, Williams expects each position to have a set role on offense, with the point guard leading the offense, the wings spreading the floor and making entry passes, and the bigs operating solely out of the post.

Little doesn’t exactly fit either spot as a wing or big, which makes the fit tricky, and ultimately contributes to his struggles this season. His play, regardless of system, is still concerning though, as he simply hasn’t shown the traits that he often did as a high schooler.

As such, his placement among NBA Draft discussions is volatile and varied, with some seeing him as a high-lottery pick, and others seeing him as a late-first rounder who could even fall to the second round if things don’t turn around.

The following is a collection of 18 mock drafts and draft boards, with authors’ rationale included as well as our own additional analysis on Little’s future in the league. Teams are attached to the “picks” in each mock draft, although those are pretty fickle. The draft order is fluid and will be until the draft lottery, so don’t put too much stock into the teams that are connected to Little within these mocks.

Considering how complex Little’s journey through high school and college has been, this piece offers more in-depth analysis and extensive contextualization of his play and his circumstances so that he can be viewed in a clearer light. Of course, this means that this piece is much deeper and much longer than last weeks’ look at Cam Johnson, who was pretty easy to peg as a prospect due to his polished skillset and predictable role at the next level.

While it’s clear that Johnson projects as a stationary/movement shooter and role player, Little’s projection is far murkier, with his unspectacular play and unpolished game make it difficult to figure out where he fits in offensively and defensively in the NBA.

With that said, where could Little end up in this year’s draft?