UNC Basketball: Assessing Cam Johnson’s rising draft stock

Keeping It Heel’s Verdict

The consensus pertaining to Cam Johnson’s draft stock is that, well, that there is no consensus. Based on the 16 mocks and boards we found, these media talking heads view Johnson’s potential range as picks 25-60, including the potential to go undrafted.

All things considered, it’s growing extremely unlikely that he fails to get his name called by either Adam Silver or Mark Tatum on June 20. If anything, the opposite is true, with the fifth-year senior rising on mocks and boards as the season goes on and his insane offensive contributions continue.

There are some concerns when it comes to his draft value, understandable knocks against him that could place him lower than other eligible draftees.

At 23 years old, Johnson is among the oldest players expecting to enter the Draft, and it’s reasonable to expect some front offices to value the untapped potential that a younger prospect might possess. Scouts may question whether the thin combo-forward will be an average defender at the next level, citing concerns over his frame/strength against bigger players, as well as his stiff, upright movements when defending on the perimeter.

But, even with the aforementioned questions being reasonable and widespread, the positive far outweighs the so-called “negatives,” and they outweigh them to a significant degree:

• 16.9 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.3 apg, 1.3 spg
• 51.6 FG%, 47.9 3P% (fourth in the nation), 78.9 FT%
• 66.4% true shooting (40th)
• 132.1 ORTG (ninth), 10.1 OBPM (third), 25.7 PER
• 1.184 points per possession (PPP) in individual offense (98th percentile, per Synergy Sports)
• 1.368 PPP on spot ups (98th percentile)
• 1.238 PPP in transition (82nd percentile)
• 1.5 PPP shooting off screens (98th percentile)
• 1.435 PPP on cuts (89th percentile)
• 0.95 PPP on isolations (76th percentile)
• 1.294 PPP on hand-offs (89th percentile)

Cam Johnson is a 6-foot-9 wing who can play three positions at the next level and projects to be a league-average defender on the wing, capable of sliding down on occasion to play the 4 spot. He shots the hell out of the ball, can pass it a little, and has a mature game that should enable him to step in directly and contribute right away.

If we’re to judge where Johnson is to land in the draft, the 25-45 range seems far more realistic (and increasingly likely), as it simply makes perfect sense for a playoff team to snag a surefire wing shooter — one of the most valuable player archetypes in basketball today — with a late first- or early second-round pick. He profiles as a perfect addition to the likes of Philadelphia, Golden State, Oklahoma State, Indiana, and other teams with picks in that aforementioned range. For playoff teams, grabbing a player with an elite skill (stationary/off-movement shooting) and a clearly-defined role at the next level is worth spending a late first-round pick on.

Considering the volatility of this draft class and the major talent drop-off after the first pick, so many players — like, basically all of them — are interchangeable in regards to their value, which makes it possible for someone like Johnson to get selected earlier than expected on draft night.

No matter what pick Johnson is selected with and no matter where he ends up, one NBA organization will be grabbing a player who’s putting up one of the most efficient offensive performances college basketball has ever seen.

That sounds pretty daggum good.

For more coverage of all things UNC Basketball, stick with Keeping It Heel. For Part Two next week, we’ll be taking a look at Nassir Little.