UNC Basketball: Are surging Tar Heels poised to grab a 1-seed?

Where does UNC basketball sit in ESPN’s latest Bracketology?

After four months of games and two-dozen editions of Bracketology, college basketball’s regular season is in its final week. And after another wild weekend of college hoops, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi released his latest iteration of the bracket on Sunday night.

There was very little change among the bracket’s top 16 seeds, but many are wondering if the North Carolina Tar Heels are poised to make a jump to the top line. Having won 12 of their last 13 games, and with another matchup against Duke on the horizon, it certainly seems like the dominoes could fall in that direction.

It also helps the Tar Heels’ case that current projected No. 1 seed Kentucky lost in blowout fashion to Tennessee over the weekend. Despite that being a “good” loss for the Wildcats, the resume and overall body of work between them and the Tar Heels is close enough that the teams could easily switch spots in the bracket depending on the results of this week’s games.

For now, though, it’s Kentucky along with Virginia, Gonzaga and Duke that sit atop Lunardi’s bracket. Virginia and Gonzaga are essentially locked in to their respective 1-seeds, and Duke — particularly with the absence of Zion Williamson in two Duke losses over the last two weeks — is nearly etched in stone.

That could, however, change if North Carolina beats Duke a second time to end the regular season, and possibly again in the ACC Tournament. And even if the longtime rivals don’t face each other a third time this season, an ACC Tournament championship for the Tar Heels would make it impossible for the selection committee to not give North Carolina a 1-seed.

There are also scenarios that could put all three ACC powers on the 1-line, something that has only happened once in the history of the tournament — in 2009, when three Big East teams earned 1-seeds.

The Tar Heels currently remain among the tournament’s 2-seeds, and are joined by Michigan State, Michigan and Tennessee. Without winning the Big 10 Tournament — and probably not even then — it seems unlikely that the Spartans or Wolverines would end up as 1-seeds. And the overall belief is that Tennessee’s resume simply isn’t going to be good enough to warrant a top seed by the time the dust settles. So, it appears to be a battle of five teams for four 1-seeds, with Kentucky or North Carolina being the most likely of the handful to end up on the outside looking in.

Houston, Kansas, Texas Tech and Purdue are all 3-seeds, and they are followed by LSU, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Marquette on the 4-line. Maryland, Iowa State, Florida State and Nevada are the 5-seeds.

The ACC, Big 12, SEC and Big 10 are all tied with seven teams in the bracket. The Big East and American Athletic Conference are both represented by four teams, while the Mountain West and Pac-12 each have two.

Stick with Keeping It Heel for all the latest NCAA Tournament projections over the next two weeks.