UNC Basketball: How long can UNC stay relevant without elite recruits?

How long can North Carolina remain relevant in college basketball without having top recruiting classes?

Initially, this is a loaded question and in some ways, a simple one. The more good players a team has, the more games it wins. However, this is not always true for various reasons.

The North Carolina Tar Heels possess one of the best basketball programs in the nation. Many great basketball players have come and gone through this highly-coveted basketball program. The Tar Heels have had great coaches to lead these teams, as well. This may prompt you to ask, “What more can you want in a college basketball powerhouse school?”

And here’s the answer to your question.

In comparison to the Duke Blue Devils and Kentucky Wildcats, obtaining commitments from the best high school basketball players is what you want. The aforementioned teams do it each and every year.

Duke and Kentucky rule college basketball recruiting. Their ability to sign the best of the best in high school basketball is second to none, except each other, perhaps.

Both teams have had the top two recruiting classes in 2011 and from 2014 to 2016. Since 2009, Kentucky has had the top recruiting class seven times (2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015 and currently 2017).

During this time, Kentucky has had the top recruiting classes in seven of the last nine years. They have been to Final Fours in 2011, 2012, 2014 and 2015. UK won a national championship in 2012, though they were very close in 2015.

Many of these recruits have gone to the NBA, including John Wall, Demarcus Cousins, Brandon Knight, Eric Bledsoe, Anthony Davis, Devin Booker, Terrence Jones, Tyler Ulis, Archie Goodwin, Enes Kanter and Willie Cauley-Stein.

In the same period, Duke has had the top recruiting class twice (2014, 2016). Since 2009, Duke has won two national championships (2010, 2015). The likes of Jahlil Okafor, Jabari Parker, Kyrie Irving, Rodney Hood, Mason Plumlee, Miles Plumlee, Kyle Singler, Lance Thomas, Justise Winslow, Tyus Jones and several others have NBA careers. Some of these players went pro after one season of college basketball.

North Carolina had a top five recruiting class in 2009 (#3), 2010 (#4) and 2012 (#5).  After winning the 2009 national championship, the Tar Heels did not make another Final Four until last season; when they lost to Villanova in the title game. Prior to 2016, UNC had a remarkable run of final fours. The Tar Heels appeared in three Final Fours in five years (2005, 2008, 2009).

The interesting thing about UNC’s 2016 graduating class was their 2012 incoming freshmen recruiting rank; No. 5 overall. This class consisted of Marcus Paige, Brice Johnson, J.P. Tokoto and Joel James. With the exception of Tokoto (went pro as a junior in 2015), this group led UNC to the 2016 title game. The top recruiting classes come packed with star talent. This group had a first-team All-American in Johnson and a four-year starter in Paige.

Carolina’s 2013 class consisted of Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Nate Britt. Despite being ranked 18th, all three of these players are important parts of the 2016 UNC squad that made a run to the NCAA Tournament title game. With UNC’s current team, they were a preseason top-10 ranked team led by the 2013 recruiting class. Last season’s success, preseason expectations and current rankings indicate the depth of UNC’s player development.

The Wildcats went to the Elite Eight in 2010; the Blue Devils in 2013; the Tar Heels in 2011 and 2012. In fact, UK defeated UNC in the 2011 Elite 8 to reach the Final Four.

UNC head coach Roy Williams has done a good job coaching recruits that were not among the best in the nation. It is safe to assume that he has done great with what he’s had. However, how long can this last? Despite not having a top-five recruiting class from 2013 to 2016, North Carolina was four points away from a national title in April.

According to SB Nation several months ago, it seems as though the Tar Heels are trending upwards with their recruiting. At the moment, the Tar Heels have the No. 3-ranked class of 2018.

During the 1980s and early to mid-1990s and a couple of years in the early 2000s, there were years when UNC had one of the best recruiting classes (i.e. 1981, 1983, 1986, 1990, 2002, 2005); in some cases, the best recruiting class (1991, 2006).

UNC’s last top-ranked recruiting classes came in 1991 and 2006. The 1991 class included Eric Montross, Brian Reese, Derrick Phelps, Pat Sullivan, Kelvin Salvadori and Clifford Rozier. This freshman class was instrumental to the Tar Heels’ 1991 Final Four run.

Two years later, this group went back to the Final Four and won Dean Smith his second national championship. Another interesting thing about UNC’s 1993 team is that there were eight McDonald’s All-Americans on the roster.

The 2006 class consisted of Tywon Lawson, Wayne Ellington, Deon Thompson, Alex Stepheson, Brandan Wright and Will Graves. This group, along with the fifth-ranked 2005 recruiting class (Tyler Hansbrough, Danny Green, Bobby Frasor, Marcus Ginyard, Mike Copeland), helped lead UNC to an Elite Eight in 2007, Final Fours in 2008 and 2009 and a national title in 2009.

Today, the college basketball recruiting landscape has evolved. In past years, it was frowned upon for college players to go pro after one season of college basketball. Now, this represents the norm.

NBA Drafts have more freshmen and sophomores than juniors and seniors. NBA mock drafts consist of high school seniors before they play a game in college.

The difference between Duke and Kentucky versus North Carolina has been their acquisition of one-and-done players. Since 2005, UNC has had two one-and-dones; Marvin Williams and Brandan Wright. Although UNC only won one championship in the past decade, they have gradually built their basketball program.

Unfortunately, UNC’s program has not grown at a similar rate to Duke and Kentucky. Kentucky’s track record speaks for itself. Duke’s does, too. They continue to get top recruits year after year.

Other factors have played a role in UNC’s demise from being a haven for top recruits. The possibility of NCAA sanctions a few seasons ago and “paper class” scandal gave UNC negative publicity and in turn, hurt their chances of obtaining top recruits. Brandon Ingram attended Duke last season, although he was rumored to sign with the Tar Heels prior to negative press.

Maybe, UNC head coach Roy Williams does not want to entertain one-and-dones. This is not a confirmed fact. However, it would explain why many one-and-dones attend North Carolina’s arch rivals.

If this is true, it should be noted that basketball programs can be built, or re-built, with the current trend of obtaining one-and-dones. There will always be playing time available the following season for the incoming class. Moreover, instant success makes a school relevant to high school basketball stars year after year.

Although UNC’s 2018 recruiting seems to be taking a step in the right direction, North Carolina cannot continue to maintain a drought of top prospects. UNC’s prominence in college basketball is at risk. Mediocrity has never been associated with the Tar Heels. Ask a longtime Tar Heel fan what UNC signifies and they will say “University of National Champions.” However, the recent years are not indicative of this phrase.

And here is the million-dollar question: How can North Carolina become a premier destination for the best recruits? Duke has two top-10 commitments in the class of 2017. Kentucky has three top-25 commitments, whereas UNC has one top-25 commitment.

No one doubts Roy Williams’ ability to coach or his legacy. He is a Hall of Fame basketball coach and this can never be taken away from him.

However, obtaining top recruits has been an obstacle North Carolina has faced for several years. Many players have spurned North Carolina to attend other schools. Recruits do not consider UNC to be one of their top options The more this happens, the farther UNC becomes associated with being a powerhouse in college basketball.