March Madness: Three opponents UNC doesn’t want to face

If UNC were to falter in the NCAA Tournament, it could be one of these three teams

Upsets.

They are what make the tournament so much fun. Cinderella stories last longer than the Giants who conquered the world. This is particularly true when your team fits this narrative or for that matter if your team has either been eliminated or never made it to begin with (Northwestern Fans all shake their heads in agreement).

Of course when your team is the one seed, like North Carolina is this year, the Cinderellas of the world aren’t your friends. In fact they are your enemies. They are enemies who remove their glass slippers and use it like a club to beat you to the ground. So when you’re a giant you have to watch out for the Cinderellas or Davids in the world.

So looking at UNC’s region which three teams pose the biggest challenge? Are they Cinderellas or are they fellow giants? Since not all teams are capable of actually playing Carolina, let’s take a look at a potential trouble team in each round starting with the group of 32.

Group of 32: USC

The choices for this group were simple: assuming UNC beats the 16 seed play in winner (and I do), they would play USC or Providence. Either could win the game which is the nature of the 8/9 toss up game. Both had a bad end to the season and barely did enough to make the tournament. So why USC over Providence?

Well, one Providence would actually be more favorable to the Heels as a 9 seed. 9 seeds have traditionally done worst against the one seed than the 8 seed. I know it doesn’t seem to make a difference but 12 eight seeds have advanced to five 9 seeds.

Secondly, despite Providence having a better back court, USC has a more experienced coach. Andy Enfield has been to a sweet 16, Ed Cooley has never won an opening round game.

Honestly I don’t think it really matters who Carolina plays in this game. The Heels have never lost in Raleigh in the NCAA tournament and I don’t see this happening either. But regardless USC poses a bigger threat to the Heels mainly on virtue of having the better opportunity to play them as opposed to Providence.

Sweet 16: Kentucky

If you read my rankings for the region, you know I ranked this team second. Unfortunately due to poor seeding by the committee, these two teams would meet in the sweet 16, if both advance to Philadelphia as projected.

Out of all the teams in the region, this one is the scariest for the Heels. First Kentucky has the size to battle on the boards. Alex Poythress is a senior who can drive to the basket. He is usually teamed with either 7 foot freshman Isaac Humphries or 6-11 Skal Labissiere. Both are tall and can board, though Labissiere makes Brice Johnson look like Shaquille O Neal. Toss in a 6-9 Derek Willis who can shoot threes and stretch the floor and Kentucky is every bit as deep down low as the Heels.

Secondly, Kentucky has a strong backcourt. Tyler Ulis won SEC player of the year for a reason. He is quick, tough, and isn’t afraid to take and make big shots. Jamal Murray is a three point draining monster who is climbing up NBA draft boards faster than Buddy Hield, a national POY candidate. Both can handle the ball and make free throws down the stretch.

Third, under Calipari, the worst Kentucky has finished in the tournament is the elite eight. His team may be young and they may not always be a one seed or undefeated but they win games when they get to the dance. Throw in the fact the Cats are 4-2 against the Heels (with three of those games decided by 2 points or less) and this will be one of UNC’s toughest test’s in the East.

Potential Cinderella in the Sweet 16: Stony Brook. If Stony Brook and Chatanooga both pull the upset, the winner would face Carolina in the sweet 16. I would favor the Seawolves over the Mocs, but wouldn’t see either as a challenge to UNC.

Elite Eight: West Virginia

Obviously by this point there are many scenarios that could work out and multiple teams have a chance to face the Heels. Unlike the previous two rounds where there were two and four teams respectively; there are eight contenders for this final spot.

I picked West Virginia because of their defense. Bob Huggins has created what is known across basketball circles as the Press Virginia. Basically it is 40 minutes of full court press and traps. The idea is for the other team to create turnovers and in doing so create more possessions.

North Carolina has been known to turn the ball over on occasion this season. In their six loses Carolina averaged 11.6 turnovers a game. A team like West Virginia will know what to do with those. Luckily for the Heels, they have two really good guards who can handle the ball and big men who know how to pass out of double teams.

Potential Cinderella in the Elite Eight: Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has the talent to make a run and upset a few teams. However, I think this would also be UNC’s ideal matchup as they have beaten the Panthers by 38 combined points in two games this year.

Of course with any bracket upsets lead to disaster and you never know who a team might face. UNC doesn’t even know who they will face in the first round. Carolina will just have to take it one game at a time and hope that they are as many think, the best team in the country.