UNC Basketball Game Preview: Duke vs. North Carolina
The greatest rivalry in college sports adds another chapter Wednesday night when Duke visits UNC.
The No. 20 Duke Blue Devils (19-6, 8-4) are the defending national champions. However, they have not looked like former champs recently. Tonight, they march into Chapel Hill to face the No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels (21-4, 10-2). With this rivalry, the records and statistics have little to no relevance because this game is personal.
Last season, the Blue Devils swept the Tar Heels en route to a national title.
Carolina has not swept Duke since the Tyler Hansbrough-led 2009 national championship team. Duke’s offense has not changed: live by the three, die by the three. What has changed for Duke is the focal point of their team.
Sophomore Grayson Allen and freshman Brandon Ingram are a powerful, dynamic duo for the Blue Devils. Both individuals average 20 points and 17 points per game. This is slightly more than half (37.8 ppg) of Duke’s total points per game (71.6). Along with Matt Jones, all three players make over 40% of their three-point field goals.
Although they miss Amile Jefferson in the low post, Ingram has become ideal “stretch four” for Coach K. At 6-foot-9 and 190 pounds, Ingram can handle the ball, shoot and guard low post players. In typical K fashion, this year’s team is a seven-to-eight man rotation at the most.
North Carolina possesses their best team since the 2012 squad that featured three first-team all-ACC players in Harrison Barnes, John Henson and Tyler Zeller. Brice Johnson is a shoe-in for first-team. Marcus Paige may be an ACC first-team selection, if he steps up during the last games of the regular season.
In tonight’s game, Carolina has to rebound and defend. The offense will work itself out. In other words, Carolina finds ways to score despite who is having a bad night. With six players averaging double figures, any given night one of these players can go off for 20 points.
Carolina has a huge advantage in the low post. Ingram will not be able to guard Johnson or Isaiah Hicks in the low post. At the small forward position, Luke Kennard cannot handle Justin Jackson. Carolina should have at least 10 more rebounds than Duke. Rebounds lead to second-chance points, fast break points and more time of possession.
Expect Duke’s Allen and Ingram to score around 40 points collectively. Keeping Duke’s role players in check will make Duke one-dimensional. However, this is easier said-than-done. As I stated earlier, on paper all of these things make sense. However, when you are playing your arch rival in the biggest rivalry in college basketball and all sports, it is personal.
Prediction: Carolina wins a close game. Paige and Johnson will anchor Carolina’s offense. Johnson’s biggest defender is himself. No one on Duke can guard him. There is no reason for him to score below 20 points. Duke has not beaten Duke in two years. Jackson has a breakout game at the small forward position. In addition, Hicks will put someone on a poster tonight.
WHAT? Duke Blue Devils @ North Carolina Tar Heels
WHEN? Wednesday, February 17, 2015
TIME? 9:00 p.m. E.T.
WHERE? Chapel Hill, North Carolina
TV? ESPN, ESPN3, The ACC Network (www.theacc.com), local Raycom Sports Channel affiliate.
RADIO? Tar Heel Sports Network
PREDICTION? UNC beats Duke, 79-74