Three Impact Games in the ACC Coastal: Week 11

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Let’s start by taking a trip back to the year 1997. That season ended with three one loss teams and two undefeated squads in the world of College Football. Peyton Manning was a senior QB who came in second in the Heisman voting to Charles Woodson. It was the final season of the bowl alliance and the last season that there was a split national champion, as the BCS was established the following year.

The conferences looked different back then too. The Big 12 ironically had a Championship game back then and produced one of the national champions in an undefeated Nebraska. The SEC also had a championship game while the ACC, Pac 10, and Big 10 did not. There were nine independents that year, compared to the three that there are now. The biggest conference was the now-disjunct WAC at a whopping 16 teams, or two more than any conference now holds.

The ACC also looked different. There were only nine teams and everybody played each other every season. Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College would eventually join seven or eight years later (Miami joined in 04, the other two in 05), but the ACC would claim, as the Big 12 does now, that they churned out a true champion sans a championship game.

That season Florida State went undefeated in conference play and UNC finished with 11 wins in what was Mack Brown’s final season before he ran off to Texas. Interim coach Carl Torbush had the interim tag removed after he led the Heels to a 42-3 stomping of Virginia Tech in the now defunct Gator Bowl (the bowl became the Taxslayer Bowl in 2014).

Nov 7, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams (12) runs as Duke Blue Devils safety DeVon Edwards (27) defends in the third quarter at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Tar Heels are the reason I wanted to go back to 1997. Not only did they win 11 games that season and finish as high as fourth in both polls, it was also the last time they won more than eight games in a season. Since that season the most games the Heels have won is eight, something they have officially done four times since, including this season (UNC did win eight games two other times in that time period but had to vacate them due to the football scandal).

The 1997 season was also the last time the Heels officially won a game against a Power 5 school while being ranked, something they did nine times that season (Carolina did have two such wins in 2008 but again had to vacate them). Currently the Heels are going for win number nine, something they can accomplish this weekend against Miami, and will try to do it as a ranked team.

These past rankings I wrote a letter to the committee imploring them to reconsider the Heels. This week they sort of listened as they did rank the Heels 23rd overall. Though that is better than not being ranked at all, it was still an insult as the committee ranked 12 other one loss teams ahead of UNC as well as five teams with two losses, including an FSU team who lost to a Georgia Tech team Carolina beat. The Heels have only one real answer to this and that is to keep winning. So with that in mind it is time for the three impact game in the ACC Coastal.

Pittsburgh at Duke (Saturday Nov 14th @ 12pm)

It is amazing the difference a couple of weeks makes. The week before Halloween there were three Coastal teams that were undefeated in conference and had one loss on the season. Those teams were UNC, Pittsburgh, and Duke and of the three Carolina was considered the weakest. All three were getting ready to play a round robin against each other and common wisdom expected the three to split as each had a home game and a road game in the mix. Today there is only one team left undefeated in the ACC and the two that failed to win play this week to keep their small ACC Coastal hopes alive. Both Duke and Pitt have lost their last two games and both were beat soundly the week before. Which team can pull it together and avoid a third straight loss?

Things going for the Panthers: If there was one thing UNC showed people last week, it was that Duke can be thrown on if your team has dynamic play makers in the receiving corp. Despite a less than stellar performance against Notre Dame, Pittsburgh has one of the best receivers in Tyler Boyd. Duke struggles to throw the ball and that works to the Panthers favor as they rank 30th in passing yards allowed and tied for 17th in sacks on the season.

Things going for the Blue Devils: Duke has not lost three straight games since 2012 when they lost five straight to end the season. Pitt can be run on having given up 147 yards to Notre Dame’s lead back the following week. Pitt also struggles against running QBs. In the two games they faced this year against running QBs (UNC and Georgia Tech), Pitt gave up a combined 151 yards. Duke’s leading rusher this year is their QB Thomas Sirk, who has failed to rush for over 50 yards only twice this season.

Last week in this section I said UNC fans wanted Pitt to win out. That was true last week when Pitt could’ve gotten a quality win versus Notre Dame and made the Heels win look better. This week Carolina fans want Pitt to lose. A loss to Duke will give the Panthers a second loss in the ACC and depending on what happens in the UNC game might lock up the division for the Heels. Though Tyler Boyd is a beast, so is Jeremy Cash and it will be his job to shut down the dynamic receiver. Cash made a good point that Pitt is a little easier to defend than Carolina because the Heels have so many more playmakers. If the Duke defense can correct a few of their errors from the week before then the Blue Devils have a real shot of doing the Tar Heels a favor for the second week in a row.

Miami at North Carolina (Saturday Nov 14th @ 3:30pm)

Carolina is coming off its biggest win of the season. Miami is coming off a quality win following an emotional victory the week before. Both teams have a shot to still win the Coastal, though only one controls their destiny. Can the Heels finally beat a Miami team who they have only officially beaten three times since the Canes joined the ACC back in 2004?

Things going for the Hurricanes: Carolina can be run on giving up 218 rushing yards per game. Miami RB Joseph Yearby has rushed for over 700 yards this season including three games over 100 yards. Miami is also playing better football since they fired Al Golden, going 2-0 under interim coach Larry Scott. Brad Kaaya also returned last week against Virginia. Last season against UNC, he went 11 of 17 for 185 yards and 3 TDs.

Things going for the Tar Heels: Carolina will be the best scoring offense Miami has faced this season. Against two other offenses ranked in the top 20 in points per game, the Canes are 0-2 and were outscored 92-23. Carolina is also really good against the pass this season ranking tied for second in passing yards allowed. Plus even though Carolina has given up a lot of rushing yards, they have struggled the most against mobile QBs. Kaaya has rushed for all of -60 yards in eight games this season. The last time the Heels played an immobile QB was against Illinois and they won that game 48-14.

Nov 7, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard Landon Turner (78) pulls the Victory Bell after the game. The Tar Heels defeated the Blue Devils 66-31 at Kenan Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

Earlier I mentioned how history has not worked in the Heels favor since 1997. Well there are a couple of things to keep in mind regarding that history. Yes a ranked Heel team has not beaten a power 5 team in 18 seasons. However, Fedora is 2-0 in his two games as a ranked team (both last season). The Heels have also not won more than 8 games since 1997 as well, but for that to happen would require one of the greatest collapses in UNC history. This season has also been a season of history breaking for Larry Fedora as well. Up until this year he was 0-3 in games following a bye. He ended that by beating Wake 50-14. He was also 1-2 versus Duke, the same record he has against Miami, and yet had no problem crushing his rival for a second year in a row. Miami is playing better since Golden was fired and there is always the potential for a letdown after a big win. The only difference this year is that Heels are focused, fuelled, and fully together. This will also be UNC’s last home game of the season and there are some seniors who definitely don’t want to end their college careers with a loss. As long as Carolina keeps their heads they should make their streak 9 in a row.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (Thursday Oct 12th @ 7:30pm)

Both teams are coming off a bye this week. Both teams need a win to keep their impressive bowl streaks alive (Georgia Tech at 19, Virginia Tech at 22). Which team can get the job done and keep that streak going?

Things going for the Hokies: The best thing going for the Hokies is the retirement announcement of Frank Beamer. Teams have a tendency to play harder when they have a cause and the Hokies have one to send Beamer out with three straight wins and a 23rd straight bowl appearance. The Hokies were also a 4OT stop away from having won two in a row. Georgia Tech has also given up 267 rushing yards per game this season which is good news for freshman RB Travon McMillian who has rushed for 442 yards and 3 TDs in his last 4 games.

Things going for the Yellow Jackets: The game is in Atlanta where the Yellow Jackets have recorded all three of their victories this season. Additionally their two home losses came by a combined 10 points, so the Jackets are clearly better at home than on the road where they are 0-4. Virginia Tech is also not good against the run and Georgia Tech’s triple option is still averaging 267 yards this season, not only good for first in the ACC but eighth nationally as well.

If this game were in Blacksburg, Virginia Tech might win by two scores. However, since the game is in Atlanta, the Jackets have a legitimate chance to secure their fourth win and keep their slim bowl hopes alive. The real game changer in this one is the retirement of Frank Beamer. How the Hokies play on the road against Georgia Tech in the first game since that announcement will go a long way in what to expect from them for the rest of the season. With their final home game coming up against UNC the following week Heels fans will be watching how the Hokies play on Thursday night. If the Hokies come ready to play in Atlanta, it should give Beamer a proper farewell and Carolina a worry next week in Blacksburg.

One to keep an eye on: Virginia at Louisville (Saturday Oct 14th @ 12:30pm)

Virginia has not been good on the road where they are 0-4 this season. After opening the season 0-3, including giving Clemson a scare, Louisville has won five of their last six and is in great shape to make a sixth consecutive bowl game with a win against the Cavaliers. The Cavs need to win out just to be bowl eligible but are playing teams that are a combined 15-12 to end the season. Barring sloppy play by the Cardinals, Virginia should fail to make a bowl for the fourth straight year in what should be Mike London’s final season as head coach.

Well that makes seven Coastal teams so that does it for this week. If UNC beats Miami and Pitt loses to Duke, the Heels clinch the Coastal. That would mean the ACC Championship game would be set three weeks before the game starts which would be a first in ACC history. Even if Pitt wins, Carolina can still clinch the Coastal with a win the following week against Virginia Tech in what will be Frank Beamers last home game. Basketball starts this weekend but for once eyes will still be on the football field this Saturday afternoon.