UNC Football: Can UNC Win 10 Games in 2015?

Think back to before North Carolina had played its first game against Liberty.  Analysts labelled the Tar Heels as the sleeper in the ACC.  With one year of playing experience under the belt of playmakers Ryan Switzer and Marquise Williams, as well as with the idea that this team had the schedule to prove their worth throughout the year, North Carolina fans were optimistic that their Tar Heels would finish first in the ACC Coastal Division.

However, Carolina fans learned as the year went on that the amount of confidence you have in a team does not influence the product on the field.  The Tar Heels’ loads of talent was not used effectively to fulfill their great potential, and the once optimistic fans are now left displeased and unsatisfied especially after the Quick Lane Bowl against Rutgers Friday, December 26th.

If the year had gone more according to plan (the plan being winning more than six games in the regular season), Tar Heel fans would be more than happy to jump on the idea that the Heels are going to be a force to be reckoned with in the ACC next year.  But the overall feeling held by the Carolina faithful is that they can’t trust the football program – and I understand it – especially after the Tar Heels more or less flopped in the 2014 season after coming from a great ending to the 2013 season.

So will North Carolina win 10 games in 2015?  Probably not.

But can the Heels improve much from this year to next and have a shot at winning eight games in 2015?  To that, I’d use the wise words of Larry Fedora (tweet taken out of context):

And here’s why:

1)  Marquise Williams is the only quarterback.

Nov 20, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Marquise Williams (12) waves to the crowd after scoring against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

When you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterback.  As much as Coach Fedora wanted to see Mitch Trubisky and Marquise Williams battle it out for playing time to increase effort and offensive production this year, it simply didn’t work.  In order for a team to be confident, their inherent leader (the quarterback) needs to be comfortable with his role.  And in both years of playing under Coach Fedora, when Williams took care of all quarterback responsibilities, Tar Heel offensive production skyrocketed.

The Tar Heels averaged more yards per game and points per game (discounting the embarrassing outlier against NC State at the end of the year) with Marquise Williams under center.

Williams finished 2014 with 2870 yards, 20 touchdowns, and a passer rating of 136.6.  Rushing, Williams added 737 yards and 12 touchdowns.  He led the Heels in rushing and passing statistically.

Nov 20, 2014; Durham, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora questions a call by the officials in their game against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Dolejs-USA TODAY Sports

2) North Carolina’s defense can only get better.

The Tar Heels gave up on average 38.9 points per game.  They finished 119th in the nation in points against.

The Heels had to outscore their opponents; they simply could not stop anybody.

A defensive performance like this is without a doubt discouraging.  A bad defense puts more pressure on the offense to make big plays and to be sharp for an entire game.  The best teams have defenses that set their offenses up for success, whether it is by causing turnovers or by improving field position.

The one good thing that comes from the terrible Tar Heel defense of 2014 is that there is plenty of room for improvement in 2015; and with the additions of DE Jalen Dalton (4 star recruit out of Clemmons, NC), DT Aaron Crawford (4 star recruit out of Ashburn, VA), and heavily sought-after CB Mike Hughes (4 star recruit from New Bern, NC), the Heels’ improvement on the defensive side of the ball should be accelerated by the incoming freshmen’s overall talent.

Considering the horrific defense and the line-up kinks the Heels had to deal with early in the season, six wins (although it should have been much more) is not as bad as it could have been.

But even with all these factors pointing towards an improved football squad in 2015, ten wins is too much to expect from the Heels next year.