NFL Draft: Breakdown of Each Teams Chances of Taking UNC RB Giovani Bernard
By Matt Hamm
17 St. Louis Rams 7-7-1 The Rams have had a bit of a RB controversy all season between rookie Daryl Richardson and veteran Stephen Jackson. Jackson is nearing the end of his career and it’s possible he could exit St. Louis after the season after the team tried to trade him at the deadline this season. Would the Rams go after another young back to team with Richardson in the post Jackson era? Maybe but I think this team is pretty close to making some noise in the NFC West under Jeff Fisher and will likely look elsewhere and try and improve a position of greater weakness. Chances of Gio to the Rams: 5%
18 Dallas Cowboys 8-7-0 Like the Raiders it’s tough to tell what the Cowboys will do. Jerry Jones is one of those owners who likes to make a splash in the off season, is Gio enough of a splash? Who the heck knows? Personally I like DeMarco Murray and if used correctly I think Felix Jones can do some things so I don’t think the Boys will look at RB as a main priority this off season. Chances of Gio to the Cowboys:
19 New York Giants 8-7-0 With Ahmad Bradshaw and rookie David Wilson on the roster for the foreseeable future the Giants won’t look to RB in the first round. Chances of Gio to the Giants: 0%
20 Chicago Bears 9-6-0 Matt Forte signed a four year deal this off season and will be the Bears feature back for at least that long. The team has a solid backup in Michael Bush, Gio won’t be teammates with Julius Peppers next season. Chances of Gio to the Bears: 0%
21 Cincinnati Bengals 9-6-0 BenJarvus Green-Ellis is just under 1100 yards in 15 games this season and has given the Bengals a good lead back option but the roster is void of any depth at the position. With a defense that ranks in the top 10 in both rushing and passing D they would be served well to upgrade the offense. Andy Dalton could use another weapon not named A.J. Green and Gio could just fit that bill. Chances of Gio to the Bengals: 15%
22 Washington Redskins (to St. Louis Rams)* 9-6-0 Given the performance of rookie Alfred Morris and head coach Mike Shanahans history of being able to plug any RB into his system it would shock me if Gio ends up a Redskin. Chances of Gio to the Redskins: 2%
23 Minnesota Vikings 9-6-0 Adrian Peterson, that is all. Chances of Gio to the Vikings: 0%
24 Indianapolis Colts 10-5-0 I’m not impressed with any of the Colts options at RB and with young QB Andrew Luck at the helm the team would be wise to supply him with a solid ground attack. If Gio lasts this long I really like the chances of him becoming a Colt and it would be a great situation for him. Chances of Gio to the Colts: 30%
25 Baltimore Ravens 10-5-0 Ray Rice, that is all. Chances of Gio to the Ravens: 0%
26 Seattle Seahawks 10-5-0 Marshawn Lynch is a monster and the team has Robert Turbin and Leon Washington on the roster, RB is not a need for this emerging team. Chances of Gio to the Seahawks: 0%
27 San Francisco 49ers 10-4-1 Frank Gore is a pro bowl back and the team already has their future starter in Kendall Hunter on the roster along with last years second round pick LaMichael James. The Niners don’t have many needs with nine pro bowl selections (not to mention eight alternates) but whatever the team decides they do need, rest assured RB won’t be on the top of their list if it’s even on the list at all. Chances of Gio to the 49ers: 0%
28 Green Bay Packers 11-4-0 The Packers have a lot of options at RB and were hit by the injury bug at the position this season. They could bring back the same group and roll the dice yet again next season and go into the year confident that even without anybody playing RB Aaron Rogers could make it work. Or they could finally break down and give him a player capable of making opposing defenses think about their running game. If Gio lasts this long I think he’s a real possibility for the Packers, I also doubt he’s on the board at #28. Chances of Gio to the Packers: 20%
29 New England Patriots 11-4-0 Stevan Ridley has had a monster season with just under 1200 yards through 15 games. Danny Woodhead is a good change of pace and the Pats have a good thing going in the backfield. I don’t see them stocking up on RBs given how much they like to pass with Tom Brady. Chances of Gio to the Patriots:
30 Denver Broncos 12-3-0 Peyton Manning has made the Broncos a Super Bowl contender despite the abscense of a true threat in the backfield. Imagine this team with Gio in the backfield, if he’s here at #30 the Broncos run to the podium and select him. Chances of Gio to the Broncos: 20%
31 Houston Texans 12-3-0 Arian Foster and Ben Tate, that is all. Chances of Gio to the Texans: 0%
32 Atlanta Falcons 13-2-0 Michael Turner is starting to slow down and the Falcons are still one of the best teams in football. It would be wise if a player of Gio’s caliber is still on the board for the Falcons to take him. Unfortunately for Atlanta if he lasts into the latter parts of the first round I just can’t see him getting by both the Packers and the Broncos. Chances of Gio to the Falcons: 10%
If you read this and wondered hey how come no team has a higher than 30% probability of selecting Gio? The answer is simple and I touched on it earlier. RB is a position that has been devalued in the NFL and teams are more likely to go after other positions in the first round and take their chances on a RB later in the draft. A lot of times teams that need backs also have other needs and feel like they need to address them earlier because they have a higher probability of filling their need in the backfield without spending a first round pick on one. Still Giovani Bernard will be selected in the first round of Aprils draft and the team that gets him will end up being very happy and may just get the most dynamic play maker in the draft.