UNC Football: Previewing East Carolina

No one said it was going to be easy. It never is in big time athletics. After another tough loss, Larry Fedora and the North Carolina Tarheels look to get back on track this weekend against Conference-USA foe East Carolina.

Oct 1, 2011; Greenville, NC, USA; East Carolina Pirates quarterback Dominique Davis (4) passes while under pressure from North Carolina Tar Heels defensive linemen Sylvester Williams (92) and Quinton Coples (90) in the first half at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-US PRESSWIRE

Last week, North Carolina suffered their second consecutive close loss, this time a heartbreaking 39-34 defeat at the hands of Louisville. The Tarheels have lost the past two games by a combined five points, including a 1-point loss to Wake Forest two weeks ago.

Even while trailing 36-7 at halftime and losing by 25 early in the fourth quarter, the Tarheels never gave up and almost completed the historical comeback. Unfortunately for North Carolina, their comeback dreams were shattered as Erik Highsmith helplessly watched a potential game-winning touchdown fall to the ground on fourth-and-goal late in the contest.

While North Carolina looks to overcome their first losing streak under Larry Fedora, East Carolina rides in fresh off a 24-14 victory over Southern Miss. The Pirates turned a halftime deficit into a third quarter double-digit lead after a series of Southern Miss turnovers. The Eagles turned the ball over on three consecutive possessions leading to three East Carolina touchdowns as a 7-3 Southern Miss lead morphed into a 24-7 deficit.

East Carolina comes in 2-1 (1-0 CUSA) with victories over Appalachian State and the aforementioned Southern Miss Eagles. The Pirates only loss on the season was a 48-10 beat down by nationally-ranked South Carolina.
Even with the victory over Southern Miss, all was not good last week for East Carolina. Southern Miss outgained them in total yards (324-228), passing yards (233-171), and rushing yards (91-57) and had a decisive advantage in first downs (20-13).

East Carolina did, however, win the battle of penalties (4-47 ECU, 8-61 USM) and turnovers (0 ECU, 3 USM). The turnover differential has to be reassuring to a program that was one of the worst in the country last year (-14 turnover differential). Thus far this season, East Carolina is +4 in their wins and -4 in their loss to South Carolina.

For East Carolina to have any chance of success against North Carolina, they’ll have to win the turnover margin by 2+. Even if they succeed, there’s still a good chance they go back to Greenville with their heads held low.
The talent level at East Carolina has dwindled since the departure of Skip Holtz and East Carolina has seen their wins decrease each year under Ruffin McNeil.

To be fair to McNeil, the Pirates only returned 10 starters a year ago and faced a grueling out-of-conference schedule. Along with North Carolina, the Pirates lost to South Carolina, Virginia Tech and Houston. Those three teams finished a combined 35-6 a season ago.

This season East Carolina returns 15 starters – and with the turnover differential sure to fall back down to a more reasonable number – they’re likely to return to a bowl game after a one-year hiatus.
Even though I see potential for improvement, I don’t see East Carolina as a team capable of beating North Carolina. The talent and superior coaching just isn’t there for the Pirates to pull the upset. They might hang around a little, but they don’t compare to Wake Forest and Louisville.

They don’t have the quarterback play, either. Tanner Price (Wake Forest) and Terry Bridgewater (Louisville) are very talented signal-callers that I tried warning UNC fans about in my preview.
I can’t say the same about East Carolina quarterback Shane Carden. While Carden has done an admirable job replacing turnover-machine Rio Johnson, he doesn’t have the talent or the experience to carve up the UNC defense like those other guys.

If Carden proves me wrong and has a big day, Larry Fedora and the football program are in for a really rough year. Which will only get even more fans in Chapel Hill asking, “is it basketball season yet?”