UNC Football: Previewing Louisville

Despite suffering their first loss of the season, the University of North Carolina must put the heartbreaking defeat to Wake Forest completely in the rear-view mirror. If they don’t, we’re likely to see the first losing streak of the Larry Fedora era.

Credit: Mark Dolejs-US PRESSWIRE

After a 62-0 victory in the opener against Elon, Fedora and UNC fell back down to Earth in last weekend’s ACC opener. The Tar Heels suffered a 28-27 defeat at the hands of rival Wake Forest.  Tanner Price threw for a career-high 327 yards and orchestrated an 11-play, 93-yard drive that ended with his go-ahead 1-yard plunge with just over two minutes remaining in the game. Bryn Renner threw an interception on the next Tar Heels possession and the game was all but sealed for the Demon Deacons.

This week’s opponent is no slouch either as Big East favorite Louisville (2-0) welcomes North Carolina (1-1) to Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium. The Cardinals have outscored Kentucky and Missouri State by a combined 67-21 and have yet to trail this season. This week’s contest, however, will be a much better gauge of just how good Louisville is.

I tried warning you last week about Wake Forest and I’ll do the same this week. This is the best team Charlie Strong has put together at Louisville and they’ll likely be playing in a BCS game in January. While USF, Cincinnati and to a lesser extent Rutgers will be challengers in the conference, it’s hard to imagine this not being the year Charlie Strong gets the Cardinals to the next level.

Offense
Louisville features the best quarterback in the Big East and one that has the potential to be one of the best in the country.  Terry Bridgewater has been nothing short of sensational early in his Louisville career. Last season, he earned 1st team Freshman All-American honors and has looked even better this season.

Bridgewater is completing an astonishing 80% of his passes this season with the majority of those misses being drops. I counted at least four dropped passes in the Missouri State game. This season, Bridgewater has completed 49-of-60 passes for 576 yards with a 2-0 TD-to-INT ratio.

He is also a threat to run although calling him a dual-threat might be a bit of a reach. He’s more of an Aaron Rodgers type runner than someone like Denard Robinson. He’ll take what you give him and can pick up some yardage, but you won’t be chasing him around all day and necessarily game-planning for his ground game.

With no clear number one target, Bridgewater will spread the ball around to a plethora of offensive weapons. Seven different receivers have over 50 yards receiving with both touchdown passes going to QB-friendly tight ends (Nate Nord and Ryan Hubbell). The leading receivers for the Cardinals are Andrell Smith (7 rec. 94 yards), Damian Copeland (8 rec. 92 yards), DeVante Parker (6 rec. 82 yards) and Nord (7 rec. 78 yards).

While the passing game is key to a Louisville victory, the Cardinals utilize a balanced attack behind a platooning backfield. Senorise Perry (35 carries, 180 yards, 2 TD) and Jeremy Wright (32 carries, 148 yards, 3 TD) have split carries thus far this season and a successful running game will be needed if Louisville hopes to sustain their early-season success.

Defense
Defensively, the Cardinals have been very good about not giving up big plays though the air. The longest completed pass against the Louisville defense this season was a 22-yarder by Kentucky. Conversely, the Louisville offense has completed six passes over 22-yards two games into the season.

The defensive line is a bit of a work-in-process for the Cardinals with Strong still tinkering with his rotation. Last week, true freshman Sheldon Rankins started in place of veteran Roy Philbon on the defensive line.

The Cardinals’ secondary features six players with starting experience from a year ago and they have been a bright spot early this season. The safety duo of Hakeem Smith and Calvin Pryor is something you need to keep an eye on if you’re a North Carolina fan. Smith was named 2nd team Big East as a freshman and 1st team Big East last year while Pryor was all over the field last week against Missouri State. Pryor finished with a team-high 8 tackles (two on special teams) and an interception.

As is the case with any Charlie Strong team, the Cardinals will blitz you over and over again. The key for North Carolina is picking up the blitzes and getting the ball out of Bryn Renner’s hand as quickly as possible. You don’t want Renner taking another shot to the head like last week.

The Tar Heels need to take the crowd out of the game as early as possible and put the pressure on the Cardinals offense. For North Carolina to win this game, they’ll have to limit the turnovers and penalties while doing their best to limit Bridgewater.
It also wouldn’t hurt to have a healthy Giovanni Bernard and Bryn Renner in the backfield.