UNC Basketball: Tar Heels Best Case Scenario in 2012
By Matt Hamm
The North Carolina Tar Heels will have a drastically different looking team in 2012 than they did in 2011. Expectations for this team will be much lower than they were heading into the 2011 season. Opinions will differ greatly when it comes to what this team will accomplish in 2012. In a two part series, Keeping It Heel will look at the best case, and the worst case scenarios for Carolina basketball in 2012.
Photo Credit: US Presswire
The point guard situation ended up being the straw that broke the Heels back in 2011 when starter Kendall Marshall went down in the post season. The Heels were left with a walk on in Stillman White to run the show and it wasn’t enough to get them past Kansas in the Elite 8. Primary backup PG Dexter Strickland, also the teams starter at the shooting guard spot was lost mid-way through the regular season with a torn ACL leaving the team with no depth.
The team is in a similar spot this year, only with a freshman, Marcus Paige as the starter at the point. Behind him the Heels have limited depth with Strickland once again set to serve in a dual guard role and walk on transfer Luke Davis as the emergency option. If the Heels are going to go anywhere this season, it’s with Paige at the helm.
I’ve said several times and I’ll say it again, you never ever want to lose a player like Kendall Marshall, but if you do, you want Marcus Paige replacing him. Paige must learn Roy Williams‘ high tempo offense quickly and prove that he can lead the team from the minute he steps onto a college floor. Strickland was recently cleared to play and has begun playing some pickup games with his teammates at Chapel Hill. A great sign for the incoming senior who will be heavily relied upon this season, the Heels need Strickland at his best and getting him cleared medically earlier than expected is a great sign.
The other main factor for Carolina will be the play of the big men. The loss of Tyler Zeller and John Henson would devastate most programs and will undoubtedly have an effect on this team. Sophomore James Michael McAdoo is expected to take a huge leap this year as he emerges from the shadows of his former teammates.
McAdoo simply put must become a star for UNC if they want to make any noise this season. McAdoo is seen as almost a lock to breakout this year after coming into Chapel Hill as one of the top prospects in the 2011 class and showing promise with increased minutes in the post season.
McAdoo isn’t a traditional big man in the sense that he isn’t a back to the basket player. He possesses guard like face up skills and a nice mid range jump shot. He runs the floor extremely well and is a nightmare for opposing defenses when attacking the rim. James Michael must expand his game and become a player teammates feel comfortable dumping the ball into in critical moments.
Assuming McAdoo doesn’t disappoint, the other big man roles are anything but defined. Freshman Joel James and Brice Johnson will compete with sophomore Desmond Hubert for a starting position and minutes next to McAdoo. The Heels don’t need a scoring machine in that role due to the talent on the perimeter and the scoring ability of Paige at the point.
The Heels need rebounding and defense mostly from these three and especially whomever emerges as the starter next to McAdoo to ignite the fast break.
The perimeter is stacked with Strickland, Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald returning with incoming freshman JP Tokoto joining the group. UNC should be able to rely on plenty of scoring from this group but they need more than that. The Heels have failed to become a consistent shooting team over the last couple years despite the fact that they have successful recruited several of the nations top shooters coming out of high school.
Without two of college basketballs best big men in Zeller and Henson, UNC must become not just a reliable shooting team, but a dangerous shooting team. Spreading the floor is key and defenses must respect them from downtown.
To recap: McAdoo must become a star, Paige needs to adapt quickly and establish himself as a top PG in the ACC and at least two big men not named McAdoo must step up inside. Oh and Hairston, Bullock and McDonald have to be the shooters they were recruited to be. All this while staying healthy.
What looks like a daunting list is very doable for the 2012 Tar Heels. Most of the returning players who were simply role players over the last couple of years are actually former five star stud recruits who have been waiting to get their chance. UNC might be the deepest team on the perimeter in the country and I think that group can do enough to mask some of the growing pains the Heels will inevitably go through.
Later I’ll take you through the scenario none of you want to happen, the worst case scenario. But don’t worry, the Heels aren’t likely to end up on either end of this pendulum we’re laying out, somewhere comfortably in the middle is probably the most appropriate guess at this point, but nobody will know for sure until this team hits the court.