UNC Basketball: Inside the Numbers

While all the attention in college sports is on football with last weekends opening week.  Let’s take a look back at the North Carolina Tar Heels 2011 season in numbers and what we can expect from the 2012 team this upcoming season.

UNC was one of the most dominate teams in all of college basketball in 2011.  Coming into the season the Heels were ranked #1 and with returning stars such as Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall among others, big things were expected of the team.

From a statistical standpoint, UNC didn’t disappoint very often as one of the most dominate teams in the land, especially on offense.  While things will change drastically in terms of expectations, you might be surprised that in some areas, Carolina may actually improve from a numbers standpoint.

First some of the stats this team won’t touch.  UNC was #1 in the nation in scoring for much of the season they slipped to third overall in the nation at the end of the year with an average of 81.3 points per game.  They were first in the nation in rebounding all year long with an average of 45.1 per.

With the losses of Zeller, Henson, Barnes and Marshall who combined averaged 55.2 points, 12.4 assists and 27.3 rebounds UNC is losing a large portion of it’s output on paper.  To be exact, 67.9% of the points, 61% of the rebounds and 71.6% of the assists are off to the NBA.

When UNCs big four all decided to go pro, the hopes of being one of the nations leaders in those categories went out the window, or did they?  Carolina will not be able to out rebound teams at nearly as high of a pace as they did last year, no matter how good you think returning sophomore James Michael McAdoo is.

Instead, the Heels will have to take a different road to victory in 2012, this team will be a lot better than most think.  Carolina was not a good shooting team by any means in 2011 shooting 45.9% good for 68th in the country (but surprisingly #1 in the ACC).  Maybe even more importantly, the Heels were mostly dreadful from beyond the arc shooting just 33.4% as a team from downtown.

UNC wasn’t a very good defensive team on the perimeter either in 2011.  Injuries to Dexter Strickland and Leslie McDonald left the team without two of its better wing defenders.  Point guard Kendall Marshall’s biggest weakness was his defense and UNC often had to compensate for his inability to keep defenders in front of him, resulting in open jump shots for the opposition.

Marshall’s replacement, freshman Marcus Paige isn’t known for his defense either but I actually expect him to be a bit of an improvement at the position over Marshall defensively.  Reggie Bullock should continue his evolution as a top defender that started last season when he was inserted into the starting lineup when Strickland tore his ACL.

The 2012 team is rich on the perimeter with Strickland, McDonald, Bullock and PJ Hairston returning with incoming freshman JP Tokoto coming in.  One of the better story lines for UNC going into the year is how Roy Williams will divide the minutes.  The battle for minutes and starting positions will be fierce and Williams will undoubtedly play those who demonstrate they can make a difference on both ends of the court.

I expect the perimeter defense to be vastly improved over the 2011 version.  The other improvement this team will make over it’s 2011 counterparts is in the shooting department.  Players like Reggie Bullock, PJ Hairston and Leslie McDonald, all of whom came in known as five star prospects with a reputation of being great shooters will have a chance to show their stuff.

Although Bullock entered the starting lineup mid-way through last season he was overshadowed by his bigger name teammates, that won’t happen this season.  Bullocks game grew tremendously as a defender and rebounder and he came up big late in the season as he got more and more comfortable within his role.

Hairston struggled as a freshman and shot less than 30% from the field after coming in as one of, if not the best shooter in the 2011 class.  PJ had a terrific summer in the NC-Pro Am and looks ready to take a huge step forward in his sophomore season.  McDonald was one of the Heels top six players coming into last season and was set to compete for a starting spot according to Roy Williams before he was lost for the season before it even began.  After another great summer look for him to explode for Carolina and potentially becoming the next star of this team.

The players seen as role players in 2010 and 2011 seasons have a chance to shine this year.  This team will look very different from last year and the stats won’t be as pretty.  But I contend that after roles are defined and this team learns how to play together we could be looking at one of the surprises in college basketball for the 2012 season.