UNC Basketball: Questions Going into the 2012 Season Part I
By Matt Hamm
I thought I would expand on something I touched on earlier this week. North Carolina will have much lower expectations this season due to the large roster turnover it experienced. As a result, Carolina has many question marks going into the 2012 season.
UNC still has plenty of talent but when Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Kendall Marshall and Harrison Barnes left for NBA riches almost all of the Heels production from last season left with them. Despite having some very good pieces to the puzzle already in the quest to replace the departed stars, this team must piece it all together and hope that things fall into place the right way if they want to win this season.
Let’s take a look at some of the questions facing the Heels this upcoming season.
Who will step up as the star of the team? It’s been debated here and in every Carolina circle around since the conclusion of last season. Who will be the teams star in 2012? Many, including I expect for James Michael McAdoo to be that guy. McAdoo is coming off a freshman season that didn’t see him take off until the postseason. McAdoo experienced a very tough transition to college in his limited role off the Tar Heels bench. This season, with Zeller and Henson gone, McAdoo is expected to own the paint, and if UNC is going to be successful in any sense of the word, McAdoo must shine this season.
Others are calling for Reggie Bullock to be the teams new leading man. Bullock stepped up last season into the starting lineup when Dexter Strickland tore his ACL and did a fine job. The problem is he was usually the fifth option on the floor and didn’t get much attention. Bullock got better and better on the defensive end and stepped up as a rebounder also helping UNC win anyway he could. He had his moments offensively but never really established himself.
Looking at the make up of the roster, I like McAdoo to be the man in 2012. The Heels are relatively thin by their standards inside, conversely they are extremely deep on the perimeter. Both McAdoo and Bullock were five star prep players with plenty of hype of expectations coming into college. Bullock was one of the best shooters of his class and with his size and athleticism, stardom was easy to predict for Bullock coming out of high school. McAdoo on the other hands is just a natural basketball player mixed in with freakish athleticism and great size. I always take the big man and that’s what I’m doing here.
How will Marcus Paige handle the point guard position? Kendall Marshall leaving after his sophomore season was a bit of a surprise to some at first glance. After all, Marshall was not seen as a player who would be in position to leave that early coming out of high school. He isn’t a big time physical talent, his defense has fallen into question his entire career and he only became a scoring threat the last month of his career. But Marshall capitalized on his stock being as high as it likely ever would have been and went pro, the right decision for him, one that stinks for the Tar Heels.
The decision leaves Carolina thin once again at the point and this time, relying on a freshman to replace the departed star. I’ve said this many times, you never, ever want to replace Kendall Marshall, but if you are forced to, you want Marcus Paige. Paige is a star waiting to happen and I think that’s why Roy Williams is recruiting PGs in the 2014 class so vigorously despite having Paige and 2013 commit Nate Britt in hand.
Paige’s game is similar, yet different from Marshall’s. They share the same weaknesses, Paige isn’t lightening quick and won’t dazzle you with his athleticism. He’s not awful defensively, but he isn’t great either, sound familiar? It should. Offensively they are different, Paige is a very smart player with a high basketball IQ, he’s good at pushing the ball and making quick decisions.
Where they differ is in the scoring department. Paige is a very talented scorer and isn’t afraid to shoot the basketball. In 2013 when Britt comes to Chapel Hill, you could see Paige playing some shooting guard to get them both on the court at the same time. I wouldn’t call Paige a shooter or a slasher, just a scorer who gets the job done.
The game will look different with Paige at the point than it did when Marshall was running things. Marcus will have some freshman mistakes, he will also be a dynamic PG who will adapt quickly. UNC fans should learn to accept the early mistakes because he doesn’t make many of the same ones twice. Paige’s game will improve as the season goes on and Carolina fans will discover just how good he is.
How much of an impact will the rest of the freshman make? This years freshman class is a mixed bag. JP Tokoto is an ultra athletic, dunk machine that reminds me of Vince Carter more and more. Tokoto is physically ready but needs some polish to his game and his jump shot. He will have a small role this season off the bench and have the opportunity to learn from upperclassmen in a stacked perimeter group.
Brice Johnson and Joel James will compete with sophomore Desmond Hubert for playing time and a starting spot next to McAdoo. Both have their knocks against them, Johnson is a very long shot blocker with a very skinny frame with questions about how much he can take physically at the college level.
James who has lost over 60 pounds in the last year since committing to UNC has some questions about his developing offensive game. Of the two, I believe Joel James is more ready at the moment to make an impact and will go toe to toe with Hubert for that starting spot. Johnson however is more talented and has a higher ceiling of the two. Look for James to get the nod over Johnson in terms of playing time this season, though I believe Johnson will eventually pass him.