UNC Basketball: Re-examining the Heels 2012 Rotation
By Matt Hamm
The 2012 North Carolina Tar Heels roster will look drastically different than the one we saw in 2011 with the departures of Tyler Zeller, John Henson, Harrison Barnes and Kendall Marshall to the NBA. Roy Williams also lost Justin Watts to graduation and Stillman White who is headed on a Mormon mission for the next two years.
The Heels will rely on a combination of four incoming freshman, some players returning from injury and others who will take on increased roles in order to compensate for the losses of the teams former “big four”. A lot is assumed but nothing is truly known about how the 2012 rotation will play out. After a summer that has allowed us to watch the freshman in postseason All-Star games and some of the returning players in the NC Pro-Am, we have a little better idea of what might happen.
Sophomore James Michael McAdoo is expected to step into the role of being the teams star or go to guy on offense. McAdoo struggled to adapt to the college game and a limited role for much of his freshman campaign. Still, the ultra talented big man was almost a lottery pick after breaking out and showing flashes of his potential in the postseason when he was forced into the lineup when Henson injured his wrist. McAdoo played stellar basketball and was able to showcase his wide range of versatile skills. Luckily for Roy Williams and Carolina fans alike, after a week long flirtation with the NBA Draft, McAdoo decided to stay put in Chapel Hill for his sophomore season.
Reggie Bullock stepped in for the injured Dexter Strickland after the combo guard tore his ACL in the 19th game of the season. Bullock adapted to his role nicely and his game grew tremendously throughout the course of the season. Replacing the teams top perimeter defender in Strickland, it was Bullock who stepped his game up the most on that end of the floor making a name for himself as a defender and a rebounder. Bullock proved last season that he can do whatever it takes to win and despite often being the fourth or fifth offensive option on the floor, Bullock played a very efficient game and is perhaps aside from McAdoo, the surest bet to be in the Heels starting lineup in 2012.
Leslie McDonald injured his knee and was lost for the season while playing the NC Pro-Am last summer. Roy said on many occasions that the injury would be very costly for Carolina and he called McDonald one of the six best players on the roster at the time of his injury. When we last saw McDonald donning a Tar Heel jersey he was quietly building confidence in a role off the bench and had become the teams most reliable outside shooter.
A former five star prospect, with budding athleticism and an excellent jump shot, McDonald has a chance to become a star with this team. The team is packed on the perimeter but with Bullock expected to slide over to the small forward position, McDonald has an opportunity to take command of the shooting guard position this season.
PJ Hairston had a tumultuous freshman season that looked like it was going to be very promising at the start of the season but which quickly derailed into a very ugly year. Hairston arrived at Chapel Hill a five star stud prospect with perhaps the best jump shot in the class. His athleticism and strength on the perimeter gave fans and observers optimism that he could provide UNC with the type of player they lacked. And all around perimeter player who could shoot the ball from anywhere on the court and create his own shot by getting to the basket anytime he wanted to.
But that’s not what happened at all. After a strong start to the season, Hairston lost his shot and his confidence quickly and the freshman faded into a player with a limited role who looked too timid to do anything on the court. Hairston started to come out of his shell a bit in the postseason but never played the way he was projected to perform on a consistent basis. Hairston has had a terrific summer in the NC Pro-Am and looks like a different man on the court. Gone is the timid, standing around in the half court, refusing to put the ball on the floor PJ Hairston we saw in Chapel Hill as a freshman. Hairston has been aggressive and he’s shown that he can use his size and versatile skill set to make an impact offensively when he’s not launching jump shots. Still, Hairston has shown a tendency to fade when it isn’t necessary and can still disappear from time to time for stretches during games.
Dexter Strickland tore his ACL on the 19th game of the season and was lost for the year. The combo guard played a huge role as the starting SG and backup PG and his loss turned out to be a devastating one in the end when UNC was left with no depth at the position when Kendall Marshall broke his wrist in the tournament.
Strickland will be counted on to play the same type of combo guard role this upcoming season regardless of whether or not he’s in the starting lineup. With freshman Marcus Paige and walk on transfer Luke Davis the only PGs on the roster, Strickland will be counted on plenty this upcoming season. Head coach Roy Williams expressed concern with Stricklands condition and as recently as July stated that he was unsure if the senior guard would be ready for the start of training camp and admitted he might not be at 100% when the season tipped off. The Heels recently received good news when Strickland was cleared to play on August 27th, a strong indication his progress is getting better and the likelihood of his healthy return by the start of the season has gotten better.
UNC welcomes four incoming freshman to the fold this season with the arrival of PG Marcus Paige, SF JP Tokoto and big men Joel James and Brice Johnson. Tokoto figures to have the smallest role of the four with the Heels stacked on the perimeter with upperclassmen. Roy Williams will carve out a role for the ultra athletic wing, but the freshman will not be counted on for big minutes.
James and Jonson will battle returning sophomore Desmond Hubert for playing time next to McAdoo inside. Many are discounting Hubert and have already penciled in one of the freshman into the starting lineup. Don’t be so sure, Hubert has added a lot of muscle and worked very hard, especially on his offensive game this summer. A very long player, Hubert showed in a limited role as a freshman that he can rebound and defend. If he can add to his offensive game and provide consistency on the other end and reliability on the glass, he could sneak into the starting lineup while nobody’s looking, but either way, he will have a role on this team.
Paige will likely step in as the starting PG this season, a rarity for Roy Williams coached teams. I’ve said many times here, you never want to replace Kendall Marshall. But if you have to, you want Marcus Paige to be your guy. UNC has another top flight PG in Nate Britt committed to Carolina in the 2013 class and two offers out to points in the 2014 class, a strong indication Roy and company believe Paige’s stay will be one or two years, one I agree with.
So now that we’ve done our homework here’s how I think the Tar Heels rotation will look like in 2012.
Starting Five
PG- Marcus Paige
SG- Leslie McDonald
SF- Reggie Bullock
PF-James Michael McAdoo
C- Joel James
Bench
The bench isn’t as easy as listing names like the starting lineup.
combo guard- Dexter Strickland, Dex will play the role of backup PG and defensive stopper off the bench. Some nights his role will be to facilitate, other nights he will be asked to play significant minutes to help defend an opposing perimeter star.
PJ Hairston is the scorer off the bench who will serve in backup roles at both perimeter positions. I believe Hairstons role will be very similar to McDonald’s in terms of minutes played and role on the court.
Desmond Hubert will be the main backup to both McAdoo and James inside. The sophomore might claim a starting spot to begin the season while the freshman gain some seasoning.
Brice Johnson will serve as the second big man off the bench. I see some struggles ahead of the skinny framed Johnson, he will need time for his body to develop and his offensive game to grow before making too much of an impact at the college level.
JP Tokoto will serve in a limited role playing behind Bullock, McDonald, Hairston and Strickland on the wings. This season is all about growing and expanding his game on both ends of the floor.
These players will serve in small, emergency type of roles at their positions. PG Luke Davis, F Jackson Simmons.
Do you agree? What do you think UNCs rotation will look like this upcoming season?