NBA Draft: Best values in the First Round

With the NBA Draft in less than two days, the first four selections are starting to shape up. Everything else is a crapshoot. Anthony Davis is definitely going first overall, Thomas Robinson is likely going second while Bradley Beal and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are likely to wrap-up the first four. Of course, this could all be shaken up if someone (says the Cavs at #4) decided to trade up with the Charlotte Bobcats to secure the second pick and the rights to the fast-rising sharpshooter Beal.

Trades are bound to shake up and destroy all mock drafts, but the top four players likely remain the same in some order. Davis, Robinson, Beal and Kidd-Gilchrist will be the cream of this year’s draft crop. The selections from the fifth pick on are unpredictable and what makes the draft so fun. No one has a clue where anyone will go. Some guys will rise and go before they’re expected while others will unexpectedly drop to playoff teams waiting in the 20’s.

Here’s a list of the top five potential values between picks 15-30:

Jared Sullinger, PF/C (Ohio State) – No other player has seen his stock fluctuate as much as Ohio State star Jared Sullinger over the past two years. Sullinger was seen as a lottery pick for much of the past two seasons, even when this status was met with questions about his size and NBA potential.

He had an average start to his sophomore season and his decision to stay an extra year was seen early on as a mistake. However, his game would eventually show back up and he was once again seen as a likely lottery pick after the season. He shut up the questions about his size when he measured in at 6’9” at the NBA Draft Combine.

Unfortunately for Sullinger, he was medically red-flagged by the NBA due to chronic back problems and his lottery status is now a thing of the past. Some team in the first round will still take a risk on Sullinger and if he remains healthy, he will be an absolute steal for someone in the mid-to-late first round.

Royce White, SF/PF (Iowa State) – One of my favorite players in the entire draft is Iowa State forward Royce White. He’s an intriguing prospect with a lottery-level skillset. He possesses a unique combination including the speed, handle and passing ability of a guard and the rebounding, frame and aggressive attacking ability of a big.

Once he finds a true position in the NBA and refines a couple of his skills on the offensive end he will be one of the draft’s biggest steals. Will he ever be a true #1 player for a Championship contender? No, probably not. But he will be a key role-player and is the type of player that every successful team needs throughout the regular season and playoffs. He’s the type of player that does all the little things that is asked and will make a big play from time-to-time when called upon.

It’s possible that he’ll go in the late teens, but most projections have White going in the 20-30 range, and someone in that range is going to get one of the top steals of the entire draft.

Quincy Miller, SF (Baylor) – Quincy Miller might be one of the most talented players in the entire draft.  The forward from Baylor was one of the best high school players in the country a couple years back, but an ACL injury his senior season of high school set him back his freshman year in the Big 12.

Miller has ideal size for the three position and has tremendous length (wingspan of 7’3”) for a small forward. He has an impressive handle and does most of his work from mid-range. The key negatives to his game is his youth and there are questions about his explosiveness after injuring his ACL.

Miller’s ceiling has no boundaries and he’s one of those chances that good teams routinely make at the end of the first round. Miller isn’t going to come in right away and make an impact, but if he remains healthy and continues to work on his game, he could be a future All-Star with all-world potential. However, there’s always the other side of the spectrum and he could turn out to be a complete bust. That’s the beauty, or better yet the ugliness, of the NBA Draft.

Kendall Marshall, PG (North Carolina) – The true point guard from UNC was seen as a lottery selection early in the draft process, but he has seen his stock slightly drop to the late teens/early 20’s range in the most recent projections by “draft experts.” The NBA Draft is a tricky process, though, and you could definitely see a lottery team falling in love and scooping him up, depending on where top point guard Damian Lillard goes.

Kendall Marshall is a phenomenal passer that makes every single one of his teammates around him better. He’s the point guard we have grown accustomed to over the years in the NBA instead of the scoring, athletic points of today’s NBA. He’s more John Stockton than Russell Westbrook. He’s more Jason Kidd than Derrick Rose.

Though those are lofty, almost unthinkable comparisons, Marshall has the ability to make that much of an impact in the NBA. His passing skill is second to none in this year’s draft and he’ll have the opportunity to refine his offensive game.

We saw how much of an impact Rajon Rondo was able to make without any form of an offensive game for so many years and we also saw how much more dangerous he is with an offensive game. When he is at the top of his offensive game and is hitting jump shots, he might be the most dangerous player in the NBA not named LeBron James or Kevin Durant.

Perry Jones, SF/PF (Baylor) – One of the most talked-about players in the NBA Draft is Baylor’s Perry Jones. Jones was seen as a lottery pick after a tremendous freshman year, but his decision to return for an extra year of college has come back to hurt him. He has great athleticism and mobility for a 6’11” athlete and is one of the most skilled forwards in the entire draft.

He’s a natural scorer with a very high ceiling. He has the ability to be as good as he wants to be, but he struggles with consistency and tends to shy away from contact. He routinely avoids contact, only averaged 3 foul shots a game, instead of embracing it and getting to the charity stripe. Once he learns his body and uses his size to his advantage, he will be a scary prospect for whichever team drafts him.

He’s the quintessential boom-or-bust prospect and the chances of him being a productive role-player are considered slim to none. He will either be a star in this league or a complete afterthought ten years down the road. It’s up to Perry Jones, and a little luck, for him to reach his true potential in this league. He’ll need to continue to refine his game and get drafted by a patient franchise with a good coach for him to truly maximize his talent.