2012 NBA Mock Draft 1.0
With the NBA Finals starting on Tuesday the obvious next step for every team not named the Thunder or Heat is the NBA Draft. Lottery teams have been preparing since the end of the regular season with preparations hitting a new high after the New Orleans Hornets were awarded the first pick in last week’s NBA Draft Lottery.
While the number one pick is a lock to be Kentucky big man Anthony Davis, the rest of the draft is a work in progress with workouts and interviews over the next couple of weeks giving prospects a chance to distinguish themselves from their competition.
In my first edition of my mock draft I will only cover the lottery teams, but eventually I will branch out and do a full first-round mock draft before the NBA Draft on June 28.
1. New Orleans Hornets: Anthony Davis, PF/C (Kentucky)
This one is a no-brainer. Anthony Davis is clearly the best player in this draft and will make an immediate impact in the league, especially on defense. While he has a lot of improving left to do on offense, he has a pretty decent mid-range game and his effort will never be a problem. He will crash the boards and get put-backs, but the Hornets will need to find a legitimate point guard at #10 to fully utilize his ability on offense. Davis isn’t someone who will immediately be able to score on his own, but having a smart, talented point guard who knows how to get him the ball will be key to his first-year offensive success.
2. Charlotte Bobcats: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF (Kentucky)
This is a tricky pick and one that will determine the rest of the draft. The debate seems to be between Kansas power forward Thomas Robinson and Kentucky swingman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. A pure scorer like Bradley Beal of Florida wouldn’t surprise me, nor would Connecticut big-man Andre Drummond. While this may change over time, I’m initially picking Kidd-Gilchrist as the Bobcats selection. He isn’t someone who is going to necessarily “wow” you on offense, but he’s great in the open-floor and is the type of player that always seems to find his offense somehow, some way. He’s also a very talented defensive player whose competitive spirit will bring a positive winning attitude to a locker-room that desperately needs it.
3. Washington Wizards: Thomas Robinson, PF (Kansas)
This is another tricky pick and one that is no easy selection. Washington has a plethora of needs and they could go any number of directions here. The only players they have to build around are PG John Wall and PF/C Nene. Their depth is horrendous and their overall talent is in the bottom three of the league. In this situation, they have to take the best player available and that’s the hometown kid Robinson. While a little undersized, Robinson is a force down low and will be a double-double machine in the NBA.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers: Bradley Beal, SG (Florida)
The Cavaliers are reportedly enamored with UNC SF Harrison Barnes and some reports have suggested they would have selected Barnes over Kyrie Irving if he had declared for the 2011 NBA Draft. Good thing for the Cavaliers that didn’t happen as Irving was the best rookie in the NBA and they will still have a shot to get their guy a year later. So, why is Bradley Beal the pick here? He’s simply the best player available and I find it hard to select Barnes over him, no matter how much he’s loved by Cleveland. I actually foresee a trade here with someone looking to jump Sacramento for big-man Andre Drummond or someone desperate for Beal. There has already been a rumor floating around of Cleveland sending #4 and #24 to Portland for #6 and #11. If I’m Cleveland, I cannot accept that trade fast enough. Not only do you still get your guy but you move up 13 spots to add another lottery talent.
5. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, C (UCONN)
Drummond to the Kings would be an odd fit next to DeMarcus Cousins, but it’s a selection that seems to have a lot of smoke. And you know that expression about where there’s smoke, there’s fire. This would actually be a good move for the Kings. Drummond is the obvious best talent on the board and this gives them leverage with Cousins in the future. We all know Cousins isn’t happy in Sacramento and this gives them insurance in case they get a trade offer they like. Don’t be surprised to see Portland or another team jump in front of Sacramento, which would lead them looking hard at Barnes.
6. Portland Trail Blazers: Damian Lillard, PG (Weber State)
Portland is in a difficult situation if they decide to stay at their slot. There seems to be a pretty big drop-off after the top five players and they will be hoping for a little luck. While there preference is likely to move up for Beal (an obvious Brandon Roy replacement) or Andre Drummond (a true center after the Greg Oden injury debacle), they might not like the price of giving up #11 in order to move up. The Blazers biggest needs are PG and C and picking Damian Lillard, the best PG in the draft, gives them the ability to go a number of different directions later in the draft. Lillard is a score-first PG with good size, athleticism and was a terrific shooter in college.
7. Golden State Warriors: Harrison Barnes, SF (UNC)
The Warriors have plenty of needs, but the selection will likely come down to Harrison Barnes or Jared Sullinger. They have Dorrel Wright at SF and David Lee at PF, so Barnes makes the most sense in my opinion. Barnes didn’t quite live up to the hype at UNC, but he is a very talented kid who can be a consistent scorer in the NBA if he just works on his game. Having a former pro Mark Jackson as his head coach would be huge for his progress. Barnes just needs to work on his ball-handling and attack the basket more aggressively while settling for less jumpshots. The aggression will likely come with more confidence in his dribbling and ability to actually get to the rim.
8. Toronto Raptors: Jeremy Lamb, SG (UCONN)
Toronto’s biggest need is at SG and Jeremy Lamb and Dion Waiters are the highest-rated guys left on the board. Both are late-risers in this draft with Lamb once considered a late-first/early-second guy and Walters being a late-teens/early-20’s selection. Waiters has reportedly been given a lottery promise and early speculation is focusing on the Raptors. I’m going to go against the grain and say the Raptors take Jeremy Lamb who has better long-term potential, although I am a big fan or Waiters.
9. Detroit Pistons: John Henson, PF (UNC)
Detroit needs to build around recent lottery selections PG Brandon Knight and PF/C Greg Monroe. They could go with Jeremy Lamb, Dion Waiters or Perry Jones if they’re there or a big-man like UNC’s John Henson. I think adding Henson as a defensive presence beside Monroe would actually be a really good selection for them, although fellow UNC big-man Tyler Zeller would probably be a safer pick due to concerns about Henson’s frame. However, it’s the NBA Draft where safe selections are usually cast-aside for the potential for greatness. Whether that’s a good or bad thing is up to you.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Kendall Marshall, PG (UNC)
Kendall Marshall becomes the third UNC player selected in the lottery with New Orleans selecting the best “pure point guard” in the draft to pair with #1 overall pick Anthony Davis. I mentioned earlier that Davis needed a pass-first PG to fully utilize his offensive abilities and there’s no better player than Marshall. Marshall still needs to improve his shot, even though he showed improvement this season, and look for his offense a little more to keep opposing teams honest. That being said, there’s plenty of pass-first PG’s who have found success with worse offenses than Marshall. (See: Rajon Rondo for most of his career).
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Dion Waiters, SG (Syracuse)
Portland to fill a need here with a center like Tyler Zeller or Meyers Leonard but Waiters is too good of a talent to pass up for a team looking to add the best player available. Portland will lose Raymond Felton, whom I replaced with Damian Lillard earlier in the draft, and SG Jamal Crawford has made it clear he will opt-out of his contract and won’t be returning to The City of Roses. Losing Felton and Crawford isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Trail Blazers as both were seen as bad apples and major distractions last season, especially when Nate McMillan was running the ship.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Tyler Zeller, C (UNC)
The UNC-heavy lottery comes to the end with the Bucks selecting center Tyler Zeller to replace former #1 pick Andrew Bogut, whom they traded to Golden State last season for SG Monta Ellis. Zeller fills a major need for Milwaukee and is the type of hard-working, team-first player that Scott Skiles loves. Perry Jones might be too much of a talent to turn down but I see the Bucks filling an obvious need.
13. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, SG (Duke)
Austin Rivers had an up-and-down freshman year at Duke and never seemed to find where he belonged on the team. Even with that, the guy is uber-talented and an absolute steal for Phoenix at #13. Don’t be surprised to see Doc Rivers try to ship #20 and #21 to a late-lottery team if his son slips as expected. Rivers will need solid coaching at the next level and Alvin Gentry isn’t a bad first coach for a young player. The Suns will look at PG if they think Steve Nash is leaving, but with Lillard and Marshall gone, there are no viable options on the board.
14. Houston Rockets: Terrence Ross, SG (Washington)
Houston could go a number of ways here and there really aren’t any huge holes on their teams. They have Kyle Lowry (although he wants to be traded) and Goran Dragic (Free Agent) at PG, Kevin Martin/Courtney Lee at SG, Chandler Parsons/Chase Budinger at SF, Luis Scola/Patrick Patterson at PF and Samuel Dalembert/Marcus Camby at C. Center might be a need with Camby and Dalembert both free agents, but they’re likely to keep at least one under contract. Houston has to take the best player available and that’s athletic scorer Terrence Ross. Courtney Lee is a restricted free agent and Kevin Martin is on the last year of his deal. Martin, who was part of the deal that would have sent Chris Paul to the Lakers and Pau Gasol to the Rockets, will likely be put on the trade-block with only one year remaining on his deal.