UNC Basketball Recruiting: 2013 Class Gut Feeling
By Matt Hamm
I get asked all the time, who do you think will commit to Carolina. Seems like a simple question, simple however it is not, far from it. The question itself is comprised of many different interconnecting questions, dominoes if you will. The recruiting landscape is like a huge jenga board. Each piece is connected, sometimes, you can pull out a piece and it won’t affect anything, at least on the surface.
But keep pulling out pieces and sooner or later the reality that each piece is supporting one another comes tumbling down. To ask whether or not Roy Williams should offer Keith Frazier, Nick King or another 2013 perimeter player is asking a whole other question all together. That question is, will Jabari Parker or Troy Williams end up committing to UNC, if the answer is yes, then offering Frazier and or King would be irresponsible. Or would it? That would depend on how many perimeter players go pro after the 2012 season.
At this point, indications are that Parker is going to stay within driving distance of his father. Depaul and Illinois make a lot of sense. But he also has a close relationship with Coach K and likes Duke a lot. So did Harrison Barnes, and who can forget the class Skype commitment to Carolina? You never know. So why should Roy pull a piece off the top of his board in favor of another this early in the game?
And what about Julius Randle? Everybody loves Randle, and Randle loves the attention. But his coach loves Roy Williams, and Roy has been in on Julius since the beginning. Is Troy Williams out of the picture really? Already? Or is he just a 16 year old kid that can’t make up his mind? Attending Oak Hill with Nate Britt can’t hurt, can it?
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it a thousand more times. Patience right now will pay off for UNCs 2013 and 2014 recruiting classes. It’s fine for Roy to wait a little longer and figure out what he wants to do with the perimeter in 2013. You’ve read the disclaimer, here’s my gut feeling on the 2013 class.
This class is already one of the best in the country with both Isiah Hicks and Nate Britt committed. Though you wouldn’t know it listening to most of Tar Heel nation. 2-3 more commitments and the class will be cemented as a top 5 class in the nation. With UNC at least talking to or looking at most of the top undecided players in the class.
I am 100% confident Roy reels in at least one of the following players. Jabari Parker, Julius Randle or Noah Vonleh (who I think will eventually reclassify to 2013). If I were forced to pick, I’m going with Randle. I’ve thought all along, even though the race seems wide open, that Randle is Carolina bound. He fits UNCs model so well and because he’s a likely one and done, he wouldn’t prohibit Roy from pursuing a supporting big man such as Kennedy Meeks or Austin Nichols.
Continuing with my gut feeling, James Michael McAdoo will be long gone in 2013 if things go right for him in 2012. Assuming it does, Roy will want to stock up on big men to develop for the 2014 campaign with him and Randle likely gone. Reading the tea leaves and going with my gut completely here. Roy goes with extra big men in 2013, and stocks up on the perimeter in 2014 with the point guard position already handled.
Watch for the second part of this series on my gut feeling covering the 2014 class.
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