NBA Lottery Mock Draft
Alright Tar Heels fans, with the 2012 NCAA Basketball season now at an end, we can begin to look for UNC standouts like Harrison Barnes, Kendall Marshall, and Tyler Zeller to make the next major step in their basketball careers. While it is a shame that Carolina will loose this core of talented players, this off-season marks one of the most influential time periods in each of these alumni’s lives. As the NBA Draft rapidly approaches, these prospects look toward the notion of representing UNC with the respective proffesional franchises that they are selected by.
The following is a projected mock of the 2012 NBA Draft’s lottery selection. While the order of this mock is simulated based on each team’s individual records at this point in the year each pick contains the player, the NBA team to which I predict they will be drafted, and a short synopsis on each players assets, as well as their weak points. Their has also been a “Tar Heel Inside Scoop” added to further analyse the Carolina prospects that are projected to be selected in the first 14 picks of this year’s draft.
1. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Davis, Power Forward, Kentucky
Current odds to win the lottery: 25%
The Charlotte Bobcats have reached a new low this season. The team is on pace to finish the season as one of the worst in NBA history and has been deprived of a true superstar throughout the entire existence as a franchise. Anthony Davis would give the team a truly dominate talent that could immediately help the league’s worst team win games. Davis would provide the team with a legitimate soring option in the paint, and would also bring rebounds and shot blocking to the table. If the Bobcats win the lottery, the team should jump on the chance to add David to their roster.
2. Washington Wizards: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Small Forward, Kentucky
Current odds to win the lottery: 19.9%
While the Wizards do have a solid nucleus of players, adding a player like MKG could help the team take the next step toward postseason contention. While his athleticism and ability to attack the rim would be huge when paired with a passer like John Wall, his elite defensive skills are Kidd-Gilchrist’s biggest asset. His natural leadership and notable high motor would also be very beneficial to a relatively young Wizards team.
3. New Orleans Hornets: Thomas Robinson, Power Forward, Kansas
Current odds to win the lottery: 15.6%
The top two options at this pick will be Thomas Robinson and Andre Drummond. I believe that the experience advantage will give Robinson the edge in this matchup. He is currently three years older than Drummond, and had two years more experience throughout his collegiate career. Since the departure of Power forward David West, the Hornets have a considerable need for a post scorer and rebounder at the four spot. With Anthony Davis off the board, Robinson would be the best man for the job in both of these departments.
4. Sacramento Kings: Andre Drummond, Center, UConn
Current odds to win the lottery: 11.9%
Out of all of the first round lottery picks in the 2012 NBA Draft, I believe that the Kings selection will be the most difficult to predict. While the team is one of the lower portions of the league, the team has a considerable amount of young talent. The top two options at the fourth pick would clearly be Andre Drummond (Center) and Bradley Beal (Shooting Guard). However, it is currently unclear whether or not the team has a noticeable need at either of these positions. The team has an array of shooters headlined by last year’s first round pick Jimmer Ferdette and current starting two guard Marcus Thornton. The Kings frontcourt is also relatively full with budding star DeMarcus Cousins at the center position and former first round pick Jason Thompson at the power forward spot. While a team with the recent subpar performance level as the Kings is certainly in need of talent, the question is where do the elect to add it? Considering Thompsons questionable future with the team, and Drummond’s notable upside, I believe that he will ultimately be the fourth pick in the draft this year.
5. Toronto Raptors: Bradley Beal, Shooting Guard, Florida
Current odds to win the lottery: 8.8%
While the Raptors already have a young star at the shooting guard position in DeMar Derozan, I doubt that the team will pass on a potential star like Bradley Beal. While Derozan has found success at his current position, his 6’7” frame would make a move to small forward fairly seamless. It is worth noting that the Raptors have always been a team that targets international players in the draft, there are no oversees players available in this draft that are worthy of the fifth overall pick. I believe that Toronto will jump on Beal and cement their backcourt for the foreseeable future.
6. Cleveland Cavaliers: Harrison Barnes, Small Forward, North Carolina
Current odds to win the lottery: 5.4%
After adding their primary building block in last year’s draft with the selection of point guard Kyrie Irving, the Cavaliers should now be looking to put legitimate players around him. While the team is certainly happy with their selection last year, the Cavaliers were also reportedly interested in selecting Harrison Barnes with the first pick in 2011. Now, they may have the chance to add the former UNC Tar Heel after all. The team currently has a glaring weakness at the small forward position, and the addition of a player with Barnes potential could be very beneficial when you pair him with a point guard like Irving.
Tar Heel Inside Scoop: UNC fans are intimately familiar with Harrison Barnes skill set and potential. The former high school All-American played solid during his tenure with the Tar Heels, but was never able to fully live up to expectations. He always seemed to shy away in big moments and never displayed killer instinct that fans hoped that he would eventually develop. However, despite these notable flaws, Barnes is still one of the top prospects in their year’s stellar draft. It is also worth noting that Barnes, who is still just 19 years old, still has plenty of time to learn the game and potentially develop into the star that many think that he can become.
7. Portland Trail Blazers: Kendall Marshall, Point Guard, North Carolina
Current odds to win the lottery: 5.3%
This pick would be interesting because if the Trail Blazers elect to fill their need at point guard, they would likely do so by replacing one UNC player with another. Portland currently has former Tar Heel Raymond Felton running the show, but the consensus is that the two parties will part ways after the season comes to an end. While the Blazers may also give a hard look at Damian Lillard with this pick, I believe that Kendall Marshall is the best point guard available in the draft. Marshall would be an excellent piece for this rebuilding Trail blazers team. He, alongside of other young pieces like Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews, and All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge, would be a solid core group of players for the team’s front office to build on.
Tar Heel Inside Scoop:
During the 2011-2012 NCAA Basketball season, Kendall Marshall established himself as one of the best pure point guards to come through the college ranks in several years. His 9.7 assist per game average was the second best in the nation, and his passing abilities were in a league of its own. Equally as impressive was his ability to command the offence at UNC. Few players would be able to find success in a facilitating role alongside of star players like Zeller, Henson, and Barnes. However, Marshall proved that he is able to deal with the likes of superstar talents, while getting each player the ball enough to keep them happy. I believe that all of these abilities could allow Marshall to become one of the best point guards in the NBA if he is placed in the proper situation.
8. Detroit Pistons: Tyler Zeller, Center, North Carolina
Current odds to win the lottery: 2.8%
If things in the 2012 NBA Draft occur as I predict that they will, Pistons will select the third UNC player in the last three picks. Detroit already has a dominate big man in Greg Monroe, but the team lacks a true center. While Monroe has played well at the five spot, he is really more of a power forward than a center. The addition of Zeller would give the team solid option at the position. When you pair these two big men together, it could be the start of big things to come as the Pistons look to get back the the winning ways that they enjoyed during the beginning of the decade.
Tar Heel Inside Scoop: While Tyler Zeller really doesn’t project to be a star player at the NBA level, his skill set and size should allow him to make an impact on both sides of the ball for the team that drafts him for many years to come. Zeller boasts a soft touch around the basket, as well as an effective mid-range jump shot that should help him to thrive on the offensive side of the court. On defense, he has proven to be both effective at both blocking shots and drawing charges, which is a rare combination for any big man. However, it is Zeller’s passion and intensity that will truly help him to thrive.
9. Utah Jazz: Damian Lillard, Point Guard, Weber State
Current odds to win the lottery: 1.7%
The Utah Jazz as a franchise is a team that has been in a rebuilding mode for the last several years. The team has many of its primary positions filled with Enes Kanter at center, Derrick Favors at power forward, and Gordon Hayward at the small forward position, the team only seems to have a glaring need at the guard positions. With a player like Damian Lillard still on the board, the Jazz have the potential to acquire a player with excellent penetrating skills. While his vision does have room for improvement, his speed and ability to get into the paint should be very beneficial to a young team like Utah.
10. New Orleans Hornets: Terrence Jones, Power Forward, KentuckyMil
Current odds to win the lottery: 1.1%
Due to the fact that the Hornets have two picks in the top 10 of this talent laden draft, the team has a major opportunity to begin the process of joining the ranks of the league’s top teams. While I have New Orleans drafting another power forward with the third overall selection, I believe that they will still target Terrence Jones based on his potential alone. If he is still available to them, the Hornets will likely take advantage of Jones’ versatility and move him to the small forward position. He, alongside fellow rookie Thomas Robinson, could be the young nucleus of talent this team needs to return to their positioning before Chris Paul and David West were shipped out.
11. Portland Trail Blazers: Jared Sullinger, Power Forward, Ohio State
Current odds to win the lottery: 0.8%
While the Blazers already have a star at the power forward position in LaMarcus Aldridge, I believe that the value will simply be too much to pass up with the eleventh pick. Sullinger is a player who has proven to be an effective low post scorer, but lacks the explosiveness that is desired for a player of his caliber. While he did manage to put together a solid collegiate career, he was never able to become the dominating player that many hoped he would. However, it is the potential of what Sullinger may become that really has scouts excited about his future. If he does fall to them at this spot, the team can bring him in at the four spot, and move Aldridge to the center position.
12. Milwaukee Bucks: Perry Jones III, Power Forward, Baylor
Current odds to win the lottery: 0.7%
Much like Jared Sullinger, Perry Jones is a player who is highly regarded based on potential rather than he actually production thus far into his career. When you look at him at his best, his 6’11” frame, explosive athletic ability, and overall ball skills his potential seems to be as high as any player in the draft. However, his major flaws lie at the intangible level. He often plays at less than 100%, and he was never content playing the post position that Baylor’s coaching staff ask him too. However, it is his potential that will carry him to a lottery selection in this draft. If he can refine his game a bit, and find the consistency that eluded him in college, then Jones may very well become a star in the NBA.
13. Utah Jazz: Jeremy Lamb, Shooting Guard, UConn
Current odds to win the lottery: 0.6%
I believe that the Jazz will select a shooting guard with this pick due to the analysis provided in their ninth overall selection synopsis. If they do indeed select a point guard with their first pick, then shooting guard seems to be the only other position of need. Jeremy Lamb is certainty one of the top guard prospects in this draft. His size (which is headlined by his insane 7ft wingspan) makes him an exceptional defender, and also helps him in the rebounding aspect of the game. Additionally, his game has a smooth feel to it that certainty passes the eye ball test and his range as a shooter should help him to find success at the NBA level. The only notable negative is his lack of strength, which is an issue that he will need to address early in his career. However despite that flaw, Lamb should develop into a solid guard for the Jazz.
14. Phoenix Suns: Austin Rivers, Shooting Guard, Duke
Current odds to win the lottery: 0.5%
At this point, the Suns are looking to go into a rebuilding mode in order to recapture some of the success that they enjoyed in the early portion of the decade. With superstar point guard Steve Nash’s future with the team in direct question, the most notable need for the team will be to add a player with star potential. Like many other players in this draft, Austin Rivers is a player that is projected to go high based on his potential. He does possess very good ball handling skills, to go along with an exceptional scoring ability. He is also a very confident player who has proven to come up clutch when it matters most (a fact that Tar Heel fans are unfortunately more aware of than anyone). However, many scouts believe that his confidence level may be too high. He has also drawn criticism in the past for hogging the ball too much. However, as stated above, Rivers has the potential to be a superstar in the NBA.
While most of the Tar Heels top players have been covered in this lottery mock, be sure to stay tuned to the continuation of the projections for analysis and predictions on Carolina power forward John Henson, and several other of the ACC’s best prospects. I plan to release the latter portion of this years mock draft in the coming days.