UNC Basketball: How Much Impact Will The 2012 Recruiting Class Make?
By Matt Hamm
The 2012 Recruiting Class is another impressive group coming to Chapel Hill, put together by Roy Williams. North Carolina will welcome the top point guard recruit in the class Marcus Paige. A dazzling small forward with tremendous athleticism in JP Tokoto. And two big men in center Joel James and power forward Brice Johnson. All four of Carolinas current commits are rated as four star recruits and UNC is in everybody’s top 10 list for 2012 classes. After losing seniors Tyler Zeller and Justin Watts, then watching Kendall Marshall, John Henson and Harrison Barnes all declare for the NBA Draft, all the sudden, this spotlight on this class just got a whole lot bigger. With would be sophomore James Michael McAdoo still considering his options for next season, the possibilities still exist that even more of a burden will be bestowed upon the 2012 recruiting class.
With the departure of Kendall Marshall and Stillman White, Marcus Paige will have a huge role in his freshman campaign. He will immediately become the starter and someone Roy will have to rely on for a lot of minutes. The top backup at the point is likely to be senior shooting guard Dexter Strickland who was handling double duties this season before he tore his ACL. UNC is in a similar position with lack of depth at PG headed into 2012-13 as they were this season. Behind Paige and Strickland will be walk on transfer Luke Davis. Paige will have to adjust quickly and learn on the job with the keys to Carolinas high octane offense. No one could replace the Cousy Award winning Marshall, but if you have to pick a successor, Paige is the best of the bunch. A very similar player to Marshall, Paige, a left handed floor general who never puts his head down. A terrific passer in both transition and the half court, Paige is very unselfish. But unlike Marshall early in his career, he likes to shoot and can create his own shot almost anytime he wants to. Paige will have an impact and a big one as a freshman. I expect him to be one of the top freshman in the nation.
The Heels will be rich with talent on the perimeter with Reggie Bullock, Dexter Strickland, PJ Hairston, Leslie McDonald returning. That probably means that there won’t be many minutes left for freshman SF JP Tokoto. Tokoto is ultra talented and even more athletic, as seen in his dazzling dunks at the All-Star game Dunk Contests. He can handle the ball better than most wings coming into college and is a pretty unselfish player. His jump shot needs some work and his defensive game while solid, should be behind all the upperclassmen. Tokoto could easily see a large role if UNC has even some of the injury troubles they had this season and I believe he’s talented enough to handle one with ease. Best case scenario is Tokoto playing a small role similar to the one Hairston played this year. Eight to twelve minutes per game off the bench, playing extended minutes only when Carolina is punishing some poor team. Don’t be surprised to see Tokoto struggle to adjust to his new role. Hairston and McAdoo certainty went through their own struggles as freshman. I don’t think we’ll see big things out of Tokoto this upcoming season, his arrival will come in 2013 and that’s just fine.
Joel James and Brice Johnson’s roles are very hard to determine right now with the uncertainty surrounding McAdoo’s future. James is a mammoth 6-10, 280 pounds, but he’s still very athletic and improved running the floor from his junior to senior year in high school. A terror on the defensive end, James could step in right now and play defense against just about anybody in the country. That ability alone will get him a spot in the rotation, that and his ability to use his body to gain good position around the rim and has made him one of the best rebounders in the 2012 class. His offensive game needs some work, I’ll probably catch some heat for saying that based on some Youtube videos I’m sure you’ve seen of him doing some good work. No doubt, James can finish and is almost scary attacking the rim and that ability should easily translate. His post game looks good against some local competition, he still has a lot of work to do with his footwork and touch inside. He also needs to develop a mid range jump shot, something all big men who start for Roy Williams eventually must have (and had in recent history). I like Johnson a little more offensively and a little less defensively and as a rebounder. His all around game and build 6-10 200lbs make him the better candidate to play a larger role than James during their freshman year.
But none of that matters if McAdoo goes pro and Connecticut transfer Alex Oriakhi chooses someone else. The truth is the James and Johnson have the potential to be fantastic players and they probably will be one day. But just like Tokoto, the best case scenario for these two is for them to come off the bench and play a small role their freshman year. If they are left as the two best big men on the team look for Roy to start sophomore Desmond Hubert alongside whichever freshman proves more capable. This could change the way Carolina looks entirely with two very good defensive big men whom are not capable of carrying the load offensively. I would expect a ton of growth by these young men all season long. Tar Heel fans will need to learn to be patient and if these young pups are thrown into the fire they will need time to grow.
The 2012 class could end up being one of the great UNC classes. I think Paige and Tokoto will end up being gems with a chance for their jerseys to hang in the rafters one day. James and Johnson will have to grow and grow quickly with Isiah Hicks coming in 2013 (and Roy hot on the Heels of Julius Randle and Kennedy Meeks). The ride will be a little bumpy next season. How much depends on how much these guys are counted on this year, one things for sure, it’s going to fun.
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