North Carolina heads back on the road to take on the Hurricanes of Miami in another ACC showdown. Carolina comes in still stung by the bee known as Austin Rivers after a devastating home loss to Duke. The ACC is a wide open race with Florida State and Duke now tied with UNC for conference supremacy. Every game is a must win from here on out. The Tar Heels have had their share of troubles on the road this season. Miami is coming off a surprising win at Duke last week but capped the week off with a loss against FSU. Enough with the introductions, it’s time to go Inside the Numbers!
The Rundown: A glance at the numbers tells us all exactly what you expect, when UNC goes up against an unranked team. Total and complete Tar Heel dominance in all phases of the game. Simulate this game one million times on Xbox or PS3 and UNC wins 999,999 times. Yet we’ve all watched that one in a million game happen against the Heels this season a couple times.
Heel Dominance: UNC dominates in almost every single statistical category, many by landslide. The Tar Heels are a much better scoring team at 83.5ppg 1st in the nation. Miami manages just 71.5ppg (-12) ranking them just 97th in the nation. The Heels should enjoy another day of dominance off the glass against the Canes as well. In another key stat Carolina leads the nation at 46.3rpg, Miami ranks a dismal 230th at 35.1rpg. It continues with UNC crushing the Canes in the assist category at 17.9apg vs 12.2 for Miami. The Tar Heels 2.8% advantage in shooting normally isn’t much to go off of. In this match up however UNC averages just under 13 more offensive possessions than Miami. When you have the ball 13 more times AND you shoot better, typically you walk away a winner.
Looking at the individual numbers shows a huge Heel advantage as well. Miami doesn’t have anyone on their roster scoring more than 12 points per game. Nor do they have anybody on their roster averaging more than 6.9 rebounds per game. In contrast, UNC has at least three guys that can easily go for 20 points any night and average over 14. Florida State beat Carolina with a no name shooting threes like he was Larry Bird. Miami defeated Duke on their home court for the first time in history with a career performance from Reggie Johnson. With no star present to try and carry them past the Heels, the Canes need a dark horse to ride in and save them.
Biggest Surprise: What surprised me the most during my statistical breakdown of these two teams was the avg opponents ppg average. Miami, not UNC, actually holds a slight advantage in this area giving up 66.8 ppg, the Heels give up an avg of 67.1 ppg. A small advantage but one I did not think Miami would hold over the Heels.
Just sum it up for me already!: The stats show UNC will be able to get out and run against Miami and set the tempo. They have a huge rebounding edge and block a lot of shots inside that will ignite the offense. Given the Tar Heels huge advantage in avg possessions per game and their shooting supremacy, this should be a blowout. One thing numbers cannot account for, home court advantage and how tough ACC games on the road really are.
