Tar Heel Gameday: UNC vs Wake Forest, Numbers You Must Know
By Matt Hamm
I sat down to write an in depth, “Inside the Numbers” feature yesterday on the Wake game. Doing my research, I decided against it. Discussing it with some people around Twitter and on the streets of Heel Nation, I decided why not. Originally it looked like a bad game to go into a bunch of detail. Why? Because this one is laughable that’s why. The Tar Heels destroy Wake Forest in every statistical category. Being a stats geek, I’m always looking at the numbers, rarely do they perform such comedy acts. So in response to you UNC Tar Heel faithful, here’s a look at the numbers you must know.
Just look at the utter dominance by Carolina above. This is the type of lopsided game you could have your PS3 or Xbox on simulate mode, five billion times, and UNC wins every time. Let’s see 18 more points per game. 2.1 more assists per game, a 1.43 assist to turn over ratio vs a 0.88 of Wake. Carolina assists on 58% of their field goals vs only 51% of Wake. Defensively the Tar Heels have a clear advantage as well. Averaging two more steals and a full blocked shot more than Wake should be even more lopsided in this game. That number is lower than it should be now that Tyler Zeller is playing like a man. Oh and then the matter of the boards. The least glamorous, but the one that wins the boards, wins the game. This one isn’t even close with Carolina holding a 12.9 advantage over the Demon Deacons. It’s hard to say with a straight face that I expect that to be even larger tonight. But you guys can’t see me so, I expect that to be even larger tonight. Wake Forest simply cannot rebound, case closed, Carolina is ranked #1 in the nation. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a +30 in this category tonight. Sometimes just looking at per game stats don’t paint the full picture of domination in my mind. Now that you’ve digested those, take a look at a comparison of season totals. Seeing the sheer numbers in total for the whole season brings more perspective in my eyes. Just look at how many more points 18 per game is. How many more blocks just one per game can be.
Briefly I want to touch on another category UNC dominates against almost every team. Assists per game, Carolina currently sits third in the nation at 18.5. My prediction, without looking at who’s #1 or what that number is (because I’m that confident, not lazy) North Carolina will be #1 in this category by the Duke game. Why? Because Reggie Bullock, and PJ Hairston are scoring more points than Dexter Strickland was. And if your scoring points for Carolina, a portion of them came from a Kendall Marshall pass. And I fully expect James Michael McAdoo to explode soon, very soon. I won’t elaborate on those last two points since I’ve beat them to death in other recent columns.
And before I go, if you need more proof. Here’s a side by side comparison of stats w/national and ACC rankings.
Offensive Averages:
Defensive Averages:
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Now look at Wake
Offensive Averages:
Defensive Averages:
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Do you think tonight will be the blowout the numbers (and I) say it will? Sound off in the comments section. If you have any trouble, click HERE