Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players for ACC Tournament Semifinal

Mar 5, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) at the
Mar 5, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) at the / Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports
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North Carolina's pursuit of not only the ACC regular season crown, but the conference tournament continues on Friday against Pitt in the semifinals.

The Tar Heels didn't let any rust take over on Thursday by disposing of Florida State in the quarterfinals, but now face a Pitt team that is trying to make an NCAA Tournament push ahead of Selection Sunday. Can the team hang with UNC on Friday night?

Here's how we see it with our full betting preview:

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Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh Betting Trends

  • Pitt is 20-10-2 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Pitt is 8-1-1 ATS over the last 10 games
  • Pitt is 4-6-1 ATS as an underdog
  • North Carolina is 19-13 ATS this season

Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina How to Watch

  • Date: Friday, March 15th
  • Game Time: 7:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Capital One Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Pitt Record: 22-10
  • North Carolina Record: 26-6

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh Key Players to Watch

North Carolina

RJ Davis: It was a balanced effort in the Tar Heels 92-57 win against Florida State, but Davis continued to excel, scoring 18 points with three rebounds and three assists. In the lone meeting between these two, Davis scored 15 but struggled from the field as the Tar Heels shot just 29% from the field. Can he round into form and send the Tar Heels to the title game?

Pittsburgh

Blake Hinson: Hinson missed nine of his 11 threes in the lone meeting against North Carolina, but he is a dangerous shooter at 6'8", making 43% of his triples on an incredibly high volume (eight per game). Hinson made four of his six shots from distance in the critical win against Wake Forest, can he follow it up with a potential NCAA Tournament-sealing victory?

North Carolina vs. Pittsburgh Prediction and Pick

I believe this game sets up as an over affair with each team's ability to play at a heightened tempo, but also get to the free throw line.

The Tar Heels physical offense is hell-bent on getting inside, third in ACC free throw rate on top of being the best offensive rebounding group in the conference. Pitt has a formidable frontcourt, but the team is prone to getting into foul trouble, sending opponents to the free throw rate at the fourth-highest rate in the league.

However, with Pitt's ability to chuck from the perimeter, the team leads the ACC in three-point rate, and the scoreboard can light up in a hurry. North Carolina will clean up the misses (best defensive rebounding team in ACC) and jumpstart the transition offense, but this Pitt team can get going quickly and North Carolina is still outside the top 300 in open three rate, per ShotQuality.

With all that being said, I'm going to stay off the side and play the OVER.

PICK: OVER 147.5

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!