NC State vs. UNC Prediction, Odds, and Key Players for ACC Tournament Final

Mar 2, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) is
Mar 2, 2024; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels guard RJ Davis (4) is / Scott Kinser-USA TODAY Sports

Despite its recent success, UNC hasn't won the ACC Tournament since 2016. That streak could come to an end tonight when they take on NC State in the final.

NC State has been on a Cinderella run of sorts, winning four-straight games as the No. 10 seed to earn a spot in the championship game. Two of those four wins included a huge upset of Duke and an overtime win against Virginia.

Will the clock strike midnight on the Wolfpack today? The Tar Heels took down NC State in both of their regular season meetings.

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NC State vs. UNC odds, spread, and total for ACC Tournament Final

NC State vs. UNC betting trends

  • The OVER is 8-4 in NC State's last 12 games
  • UNC is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games vs. NC State
  • The UNDER is 5-2 in UNC's last seven games
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two teams

NC State vs. UNC how to watch

  • Date: Saturday, March 16
  • Game time: 8:30 p.m. EST
  • Venue: Capital One Arena
  • How to watch (TV): ESPN
  • NC State record: 21-14 (9-11 in ACC)
  • UNC record: 27-6 (17-3 in ACC)

NC State vs. UNC key players to watch

NC State

DJ Burns: NC State's forward has been a big part of the Wolfpack's tournament run. He has reached double-digit points in all four games including racking up 19 points while shooting 72.7% from the field against Virginia. For them to have any hope to win tonight, they need Burns to step up in a big way again.


R.J Davis: UNC's leading scorer can go take over a game and that's what he did against Pitt when he racked up 25 points en route to a 72-65 victory. NC State will have to try to lock him up if there's any chance of an upset tonight.

NC State vs. UNC prediction and pick

Instead of betting on a side in the ACC Tournament Final, I'm going to look at the total instead and back the OVER. Both teams make the most of their offensive possessions, ranking high in a stat called "Floor%", which measures the percentage of a team's possessions that result in at least one point being scored.

UNC ranks 23rd in that metric and NC State comes in at 64th in the country. UNC also plays at one of the fastest paces of play in college basketball as well, ranking 52nd in possession per game.

UNC certainly has the defensive advantage, but NC State ranking 179th in Opponent Floor% certainly makes me think we're going to see a high-scoring affair in today's championship game.

Let's sit back and root for points in this one.

Pick: OVER 146.5

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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