Florida State vs. North Carolina Prediction, Odds and Key Players for ACC Tournament Quarterfinal (Target total)

Mar 9, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels players RJ Davis (4) Harrison
Mar 9, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels players RJ Davis (4) Harrison / Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
facebooktwitterreddit

Florida State advanced out of the second round of the ACC Tournament, setting up a quarterfinal matchup with top-seeded North Carolina.

The Tar Heels secured the top seed in the ACC Tournament with a win over Duke on the road Saturday, and will look to navigate a formidable Florida State team that has competed with UNC through two games, losing each game by single digits.

While UNC is a double-digit favorite, is there more betting value on the total? Here's our best bet for the ACC quarterfinals on Thursday:

New FanDuel users, sign up below and get $150 in bonus bets when you sign up and win your first bet of just $5! Don't miss out!

Florida State vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread and Total

North Carolina vs. Florida State Betting Trends

  • North Carolina is 18-13 against the spread (ATS) this season
  • Florida State has gone OVER in 21 of 32 games this season
  • Florida State has gone OVER in eight of 10 games

Florida State vs. North Carolina How to Watch

  • Date: Thursday, March 14th
  • Game Time: 12:00 PM EST
  • Venue: Capital One Arena
  • How to Watch (TV): ESPN
  • Florida State Record: 17-15
  • North Carolina Record: 25-6

Florida State vs. North Carolina Key Players to Watch

Florida State

Jahmir Watkins: Watkins scored 34 points in the win against Virginia Tech, getting downhill at will and making 17 trips to the charity stripe. However, Watkins has been quiet in the first two meetings against the Tar Heels, scoring a combined 29 points including a 25% shooting game in the January 27th loss.

North Carolina

RJ Davis: If North Carolina is going to get past the Seminoles, it'll likely be on the decision-making of the All-American candidate Davis, who is the team's lead ball handler and will be tasked with navigating the most aggressive ball pressure defense in Florida State. Davis has scored 51 points in the two meetings.

Florida State vs. North Carolina Prediction and Pick

This game is set to be a high-possession affair with two teams that prefer to play in the open court and have a propensity for getting to the free-throw line.

With both teams ranking inside the top four in free throw rate and offensive rebounding percentage, there will be plenty of opportunities for points to go up on the board. Look for the Tar Heels to crash the glass aggressively against the FSU defense that is last in ACC defensive rebound percentage. Armando Bacot should be in line for a high-usage game.

However, Leonard Hamilton's bunch may be up to the task. The team has been able to stay within shouting distance of the No. 1 seed in the ACC Tournament with its ability to cash in from beyond the arc. While the Tar Heels have the lowest three-point percentage allowed in ACC play, the team is still outside the top 300 in open three rates, per ShotQuality.

I'm going to steer clear of the double digit spread and opt for the over on Thursday afternoon.

PICK: OVER 153.5


Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!