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UNC Basketball Game Preview: North Carolina vs. Duke

By Horran Cameron

Feb 17, 2016; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils players celebrate as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige (5) walks off the court after the game. The Duke Blue Devils defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels 74-73 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 17, 2016; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; Duke Blue Devils players celebrate as North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige (5) walks off the court after the game. The Duke Blue Devils defeated the North Carolina Tar Heels 74-73 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /
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UNC is out for revenge when they meet Duke at Cameron on Saturday

Today will mark the last game in Cameron Indoor Stadium for current Tar Heels Joel James, Brice Johnson and Marcus Paige. This senior trio has gone 0-3 against Duke in away games in Durham, North Carolina in the past three seasons. When the No. 8 North Carolina Tar Heels (24-6, ACC) face the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils (22-8, ACC), this game will be a rematch of the 74-73 Duke victory from last month.

Duke forward Brandon Ingram took over last month’s matchup between these two teams. Blue Devils head coach Mike Krzyzewski ran an NBA-style offense, placing Ingram in isolation plays. With Ingram as a primary ballhandler at 6’9″ 180 lbs., Duke’s offense relied on him to make plays down the stretch. Ingram finished the game with 20 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and two blocks. This strategy worked for Duke and they could go back to it again on Saturday.

At the start of the game, Duke’s Grayson Allen penetrated Carolina’s defense for a few “and-one” layups. This created room and separation for guard Luke Kennard to connect on several three-pointers. Kennard finished the first UNC/Duke game with 15 points off the bench.

Duke’s x-factor was center Marshall Plumlee. He hit all five of his field goals for a total of 10 points, along with seven rebounds. Coach K plays seven players usually as the team has a very slim bench to go to. North Carolina’s best strategy is to pound the ball inside, getting Duke’s low post players in foul trouble. Freshman Chase Jeter is the only center who comes off the bench for Duke.

Carolina must remember that once Plumlee gets in foul trouble, Duke will become solely a perimeter team. In actuality, Duke’s offense is based off “small ball,” and setting screens for their primary shooters.

North Carolina did enough to win the first matchup. Their problem was their laziness on defense down the stretch. Despite Carolina outrebounding Duke 46-34, UNC had one steal the entire game. Likewise, Carolina made one of their 13 three-point field goals.

On the bright side, Tar Heel forward Brice Johnson played like the ACC Player of the Year in the first matchup. He finished the game with 29 points and 19 rebounds. Down the stretch, Johnson did not have too many touches. Carolina has to get their go-to player to ball, when he dominates a game. Johnson has had his best season as a Tar Heel. It is safe to say that he saved the best for his last season.

On the other hand, Marcus Paige has had his worst season as a Tar Heel. Although Paige is one of UNC’s best players, he has struggled being a consistent scorer this season. Joel Berry II and Nate Britt have emerged as more reliable shooters this season, during Paige’s elongated slump. Berry and Britt must hit their open shots to secure a win for the Tar Heels. Likewise, Justin Jackson must be assertive offensively, also. Once he realizes that Duke has no one to contain him, he will score at will.

Mar 7, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Isaiah Hicks (22) scores a sDuke Blue Devils center Jahlil Okafor (15) defends in the second half. The Blue Devils defeated the Tar Heels 84-77 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 7, 2015; Chapel Hill, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels forward Isaiah Hicks (22) scores a sDuke Blue Devils center Jahlil Okafor (15) defends in the second half. The Blue Devils defeated the Tar Heels 84-77 at Dean E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports /

Carolina’s x-factor is Isaiah Hicks. He is perhaps the best NBA prospect on Carolina’s roster. This young man deserves to play 30 plus minutes. Hicks is unstoppable in the post. He has brought toughness for UNC all season long. Lean on Hicks and Johnson in the low post should translate to an easy win for the Tar Heels.

The last time Carolina won in Cameron Indoor Stadium, it was 2012. That season, Carolina had an impressive team headlined by the ACC Player of the Year in Tyler Zeller. Zeller was also a first-team all-ACC selection, along with Harrison Barnes and John Henson. Kendall Marshall was a second-team all-ACC selection and won the Bob Cousy Award as the nation’s top NCAA point guard.

Carolina’s current team could (and should) have several all-ACC selections (Berry, Paige, Hicks, Johnson) and an ACC Player of the Year winner (Johnson). Perhaps, Carolina will emulate the 2012 team by ending the regular season with a blowout win.

WHAT? North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils
WHEN? Saturday, March 5, 2016
TIME? 6:30 p.m. E.T.
WHERE? Durham, North Carolina, Cameron Indoor Stadium
TV? ESPN and GoHeelsTV
RADIO? Tar Heel Sports Network
PREDICTION? UNC beats Duke, 77-73

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