UNC Football and the College Football Playoff

UNC was ranked tenth in the latest CFP rankings. Would a win against #1 Clemson be enough to get the Heels into the top 4? Check it out here.

The CFP Committee has made one thing clear this season, they do not respect North Carolina. Whether it is the schedule with two FCS teams, the bad loss to South Carolina, or even perhaps the name on the jersey, the Heels just have not done enough to impress the committee. Of course all that could change with a win over Clemson in a stadium where UNC’s season started with that aforementioned loss. A win in that game, particularly one by a touchdown or two or five, would have to give the committee second thought about who should be in that top 4.

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Below I propose four scenarios where the committee would have to consider the Heels and who their competition for one of those four spots would be. Before we get into that, let’s go on and toss out a few facts.

First a loss by Carolina and the Heels will be playing in the Russell Athletic Bowl. I don’t see how, even if it is close, the committee would move the Heels ahead of FSU or Notre Dame with a loss to make one of those precious access bowls. Second, FSU and Notre Dame, though ranked ahead of the Heels now, will not factor into this discussion. If UNC wins they will have a win over a team that neither of those two could beat and therefore should at least jump them. Third, the winner of the Big Ten is in, the loser is out. There is no denying that, so they, along with Oklahoma (who is also a shoe-in) will also not be referenced here. Ok with that taken care of let’s look at the four scenarios, ranked by likelihood.

Scenario 1: UNC beats Clemson, Alabama and Stanford win their respective Conference Championships.

In this scenario the only upset comes from the Heels. That would most likely mean that the committee would rank Alabama 1, Oklahoma 2, and the Big Ten winner 3. The question then becomes who should the committee rank fourth. I believe in this scenario there would be four potential contenders: UNC, Stanford, Ohio State, and Clemson. Let’s see how each stacks up:

Clemson (12-1)

Wins against CFP’s current Top 25: 2

Wins against Power 5 .500 or Better: 5

SOS: 36

Conference Championship: No

Ohio State (11-1)

Wins against CFP’s current Top 25: 1

Wins against Power 5 over .500: 2

SOS: 58

Conference Championship: No

Stanford (11-2)

Wins against CFP’s current Top 25: 3 (though two would be against USC)

Wins against Power 5 over .500: 6 (though two would be against USC)

SOS: 18

Conference Championship: Yes

North Carolina (12-1)

Nov 28, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels quarterback Marquise William (12) waves to fans after a victory against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter Finley Stadium. North Carolina won 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

Wins against CFP’s Top 25: 1

Wins against Power 5 over .500: 5

SOS: 62

Conference Championship: Yes

These four teams look pretty similar except in strength of schedule where UNC and OSU are both at a disadvantage. However if you look at Strength of Record, which determines how hard it is for an average team to have the same record against said schedule, all four teams are pretty close (Clemson ranks second, OSU ninth, UNC 11th, and Stanford 12th). I consider SOR to be a better standard than SOS as it takes more factors into consideration and emphasizes winning.

In this Scenario Carolina would have the head to head win over Clemson, something the committee looks at, as well as a Conference Championship. Stanford would also have a championship. OSU, whose overall resume looks very similar to Carolina’s albeit one less win, would only have the eye test, which I am not sure is enough. OSU could also state common opponents as both teams played Virginia Tech. Though the Buckeyes won by more (18 as opposed to three by the Heels), they were actually trailing when the Hokies QB was injured. This is something the committee should take into consideration as Carolina faced that same QB for the whole game.

I believe in this scenario it would come down to a two loss Stanford versus a one loss Carolina. The Heels and Cardinal would have no head to head matchups or common opponents (though it should be noted Northwestern beat Stanford by 10 and Duke by 9, the same Duke team UNC beat by 35). Both would be Conference Champions, though UNC would have one more win as well as the better win of the two. However, I do believe because they are already ranked three spots higher than UNC, Stanford would sneak in, with the ACC being the conference left out this season.

Scenario 2: UNC beats Clemson, USC beats Stanford, and Alabama wins the SEC Championship.

This scenario changes things slightly. Stanford would no longer be in the playoff talk. The committees rankings of the top 3 would look the same as the ones mentioned above. Again this leaves the fourth spot up for grabs. In this scenario the three teams would be Clemson, Ohio State, and North Carolina. North Carolina has beaten Clemson and has a Conference Championship, so that should eliminate the Tigers, which leaves just OSU and UNC.

As I stated above I believe that the Heels and Buckeyes have a very similar overall resumes in this scenario. The big difference is that UNC would have a Conference Championship as well as a 12th win. The committee can place a non champion into the top 4 over a conference champion if that fourth team is unequivocally better. Outside of a personal preference, looking just at the stats I don’t see how Ohio State is “clearly” better than the Heels in this scenario. I believe in this case the Heels would be the fourth team selected.

Scenario 3: UNC beats Clemson, USC beats Stanford, and Florida beat Alabama.

Nov 28, 2015; Raleigh, NC, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Larry Fedora smiles as he leaves the field after a victory over the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter Finley Stadium. North Carolina won 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports

This is what is called the total chaos scenario. In this scenario, the committee would rank Oklahoma at 1 and the Big Ten Champion at 2. Spots 3 and 4 would be up for grabs for six teams: the aforementioned Clemson, Ohio State, and UNC as well as Alabama, Notre Dame, and the Big Ten loser. In this scenario I believe that UNC would be the three seed. That would leave five non champions for the committee to chose from (Sorry Florida even with the Championship you’re not getting in).

I honestly believe that in this scenario, two conferences would get left out as the SEC would join the Pac 12. I also think that Clemson and Ohio State would stand out over the rest of the group. Though, this is probably Ohio State’s best chance to get into the playoff, when comparing resumes, the Tigers stand out as the clearly better choice. So chaos means that the league that is most likely to get left out if UNC wins is also the league most likely to get two teams in if UNC wins.

Scenario 4: UNC beats Clemson, Florida beats Alabama, and Stanford wins the Pac 12 Championship.

How is it that total chaos is more likely than this scenario? Well, have you seen Florida lately? They almost loss to a South Carolina team that is a shell of the team that beat UNC. Anyways in this situation, the committees rankings would be the same for the first two spots as they were in scenario three. The other two spots would be up between Clemson, UNC, Ohio State, and Stanford with the SEC getting left out. I believe that scenario one would come into play with the Cardinal taking the third spot and the Heels coming in at number four.

Obviously, this is just one man’s opinion. Many other opinions have been made and the committee has 12 of their own. There are no guarantees in this game. If the Heels win, they will play in an access bowl and maybe even the playoff. If they lose, they can book their tickets to Orlando for the Russell Athletic Bowl. Whatever the case, we will know more Saturday Night, and even more Sunday Morning.

What do you think? If the Heels win are they in? Let us know in the comments below.

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