They say never to count your chickens before they hatch, never overlook an opponent, and don’t quit until you hear a fat lady singing. Metaphorically, I’m about to be 0-3. I’m choosing to overlook the University of Miami and explain why the 4-2 UNC Tar Heels will still beat a 5-1 Dook team next Saturday.
Reason #1: Dook’s played cupcakes
The Blue Devils have gone against Florida International University, North Carolina Central, and Memphis. Florida International is 1-5 with a squeaked out overtime victory over national powerhouse Akron (cough cough), and currently in eighth place in the Sun Belt Conference. North Carolina Central lost to Elon by 20 this season—the Tar Heels beat them by 62. Memphis has one win and four losses.
Reason #2: UNC hasn’t played as many cupcakes
Ever dangerous East Carolina and #19 ranked Louisville are not pushovers by any stretch of the imagination. Chapel Hill crushed the ECU Pirates and came within one point of upsetting Louisville on the road. However, the losses that UNC has handed teams have been absolute beatings. They bested a runner-up ACC champion from last year, Virginia Tech and were only upset by Wake Forest only by one in an impressive performance by the Demon Deacons.
Reason #3: UNC has the right kind of stats where it matters
The Tar Heels are a top ten offensive team. They’re ranked ninth nationally in the “Points For” category at 44 points per game. Chapel Hill is ranked as a top 30 defensive team. They’re ranked 27th in “Points Against” at 17.8 per game. However, Dook falls behind pretty significantly in these categories. The Blue Devils put up 37.8 points per game and rank 27th nationally. The Blue Devils also rank lower in defense. They allow 25.2 points for the other team per game, ranking 59th nationally.
All these factors point to a positive matchup for the Tar Heels. Just go ahead and start counting some chickens. Oh, and start looking for a singing fat lady.